Four days after Wagner’s paramilitaries started their military uprising in Russia and stopped it after about 36 hours in exchange for a minimal deal to save their hides, there are many questions about Wagner’s ultimate intentions. rebelthe reasons that triggered it or the reasons that caused the militia leader to stop his attack advancing to moscow When he barely met the resistance of the Russian security forces. This western intelligence There may be some answers. According to ‘The Wall Street Journal’ citing anonymous espionage sources, Evgeny Prigozhin suitor seize military high command He became head of the Kremlin, but had to change his plans. russian counterintelligence He would find out days before the rebellion was intended.
Prigozhin’s disdain for the Minister of Defense, sergei shoiguand Chief of Staff, Valery Gerasimov, is well known. Wagner’s boss had been looking for them for months. degenerate And incompetentto blame them mistakes in Ukraine and accusing them of abandoning their paramilitary units no support or ammoSo much so that he threatened to withdraw his troops from the area. bakhmut At the end of April. He didn’t, but he wanted revenge. According to Western intelligence, Prigozhin wanted to capture Shoigu and Gerasimov during a trip they were both planning to a region on the border with Ukraine, but two days before the operation, Federal Security Service (FSB)The former KGB learned of his plans.
information confirmed by Viktor Zolotov, commander of the Russian National Guard, a unit that reports directly to the president. “By Prigozhin private information leaked On rebellion preparations It will start from June 22-25,” Zolotov told Russian state media this week. The ‘Journal’ claims that Western espionage thought the original plan was sufficient. chance to develophowever, it failed after the denunciation spread, forcing Prigozhin to adopt an alternative and send his troops to Moscow earlier than originally planned.
Senior officials knew of Wagner’s plans
Wagner’s paramilitaries met little opposition in their “justice march” towards the capital. got it with no problem rostov-on-donSeveral helicopters were shot down in and around the place where the war in Ukraine was coordinated. Vorozneh. Contrary to what Prigozhin had expected, however, they did not find support from the Russian military command during their advance towards the capital, according to Western intelligence. It is probably a decisive factor for Belarusian leader Aleksander Lukashenko to accept his mediation and step back while his forces are practically intact.
It is very likely that Prigozhin tested his potential allies before going to the lion’s den. Not surprisingly, he pre-announced his plans to Sergei Surovikin, also known as Sergei Surovikin, according to ‘The New York Times’, which also cites anonymous Western espionage sources. “General Apocalypse”He is one of the most respected soldiers who commanded Russian troops in Ukraine between October 2022 and last January. Wagner’s boss had not only praised Surovikin several times, he had even offered him with the general. Mikhail Mizintsev – Known to Ukrainians as the “Butcher of Mariupol” – will replace Shoigu and Gerasimov.
factions in the army
“The Russian Armed Forces is not monolithic, it consists of parts. many rival groups Carnegie Endowment analyst Mikhail Komin competes for jobs and sources of income. “Prigozhin was confident that officers who made a career under the reformists who preceded Shoigu and Gerasimov should remain neutral or give silent support.”
Intelligence information should always be taken with great care, especially when the West is fully allied with one of the parties in this war. A Kremlin spokesperson described how “Gossip” Presumed knowledge of Surovikin’s coup plots. But he hasn’t been heard from since Saturday, a day after he claimed he was the first general to condemn the coup and the only general to order airstrikes against the rebels.
Russian Telegram channel, rybarKnown for his support for the invasion of Ukraine, he said he had “not been seen since Saturday” and all kinds of rumors were circulating about his whereabouts. “One of the versions says, under investigation”, wrote Rybar.