There is more than one correct option to determine which region Sudan is in. HE third largest country It is located at a crossroads of the African continent. Horn of AfricaHE coastal desert and comprehensive Red Seait is a crossroads of political, cultural and economic interests and population flows. This geostrategic constellation expands the region that has the potential to suffer the consequences of the current escalating violence in Sudan.
In recent years, five out of seven countries bordering Sudanese territory –Ethiopia, Chad, Central African Republic, Libya And South Sudan– encountered conflicts or political unrest within their own borders. Because of this regional instability, the struggle between generals Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo is geopolitical, migration and energy worrisome beyond Sudan’s borders.
1. The migration crisis in Chad and Libya
“We’re already seeing the regional spread of conflict, especially in terms of migration,” says Ahmed Soliman, a researcher specializing in the Chatham House area. Horn of Africa. Most immigration in this region intra-regionalTherefore, refugees come to neighboring countries, for example Libya anyone Chad, also unstable and with the consequences of their own internal conflicts. According to this UN Refugee AgencyChad, which is already home to more than 400,000 Sudanese and closed its borders the day the violence erupted, poses a threat to the country’s already struggling services and resources.
“Sudan It had hosted immigrants from its neighbors before; It is a circular migration model,” explains Soliman. Migration route from East Africa to Europefrom start to finish Libya. The expert believes that “what will change will be the cost of migration” and that only if the Sudanese state collapses the migration will be huge and have a tangible impact on Europe. “But we’re not there yet,” he insists. Sudan has twice the population (47 million). Syria before their civil wars. “Imagine the impact of the collapse of a country with a population of more than 45 million, at the confluence of the Arab world, the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean. commercial artery between Asia and Europe“, underlines Jeffrey Feltman, US special envoy to the Horn of Africa from April 2021 to February 2022.
2. South Sudan’s oil is under threat
South Sudan It produces between 150,000 and 170,000 barrels Oil That’s more than double its northern neighbor per day, according to data from the CIA’s The World Factbook. However, Martijn Vlaskamp, a researcher specializing in natural resources and conflicts at the Institut Barcelona d’Estudis Internacionals, notes that the country, which has been independent since 2011, “depends on Sudan to export its oil.” Port Sudan pipeline -Red Sea exit- passes through KhartoumThe epicenter of the armed conflict that broke out on April 15.
For this reason and great economic dependence on oil with South SudanAlthough they are “not worldwide relevant oil producers and export minimal amounts to Asian countries,” the conflict worries the link between the two countries, said Gonzalo Escribano, principal investigator at the Royal Institute of Elcano specializing in energy geopolitics and geoeconomics. “Right now oil production remains the same, but that can change from one day to the next,” says Vlaskamp. “Both sides involved in the Sudan conflict have claims in the country, so they are not currently interested in stopping production,” adds the researcher.
3. Egypt’s obsession with the Ethiopian dam
SweetcornHe is also concerned about the consequences of the Sudanese conflict on diplomatic tensions with Ethiopia over the management of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which received a large influx of Sudanese refugees. “Egypt has a huge obsession with dams, as the waters of the Nile are a matter of national interest,” Soliman explains. The Nile is vital for Egypt and Sudan, which are heavily dependent on its water. Cairo thinks that Dam on the Blue NileIn operation since February 2022, the river poses a threat to the control of the river’s water flow and sees Sudan as its key ally in its conflict with Ethiopia.
Escribano says that with the conflict, diplomatic tensions could enter a new phase and face “stability problems”. Also now, according to Soliman, “there is a new factor: Close military relationship between Cairo and Khartoum“Egypt’s president, in addition to sharing an extensive border connection, Abdel Fattah el-Sisiclose to its president and president al-Burhan Sudanese Army. Any tensions over the ongoing conflict between Egypt and Sudan could further hamper efforts to reach an agreement.