In Greece, the ballot boxes were opened at 07:00 in the morning. (6:00 a.m. on mainland Spain) to elect the new government in one of the most unpredictable elections in the country’s recent history. It doesn’t really matter which party gets the most votes, because all the polls show it. The New Democracy of current Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, also, the electoral system initiated at this meeting will lead the country to a coalition or, if there is no agreement, to new elections in July.
The 300 seats that make up the Council of Hellenes andunicameral parliament Greece In recent years, the scene of all kinds of mobilization from Syntagma Square in the center of Athens, basically citizens complaining about the worsening of their living standards and a financial bailout that the country didn’t quite turn the page on until last year.
Traditionally, the Greek electoral system favored the party with the most votes, giving that party a bonus that practically gave it complete freedom when it came to forming a government. But, SYRIZA Administration reformed the law in 2018 to bring proportional distribution This Sunday will be tested once and for all without restrictions or rewards. Deputies will be distributed proportionally to all groups that exceed the 3 percent threshold.
With this new system, a party needs to reach 46 percent of the vote –-unprecedented in the last thirty years-to rule alone. Polls move New Democracy in a range that oscillates between 31 and 36 percent, while SYRIZA’s voting intent is between 24 and 29 percent.
The Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK), formerly the governing party, ranks third—around 10 percent—for this reasonn a hypothetical coalition would hold the key to power. Therefore, it can decide whether to allow Mitsotakis a second term, or whether to opt for the “progressive coalition” that SYRIZA demands, with which it shares part of the program as well as potential voters.
Tsipras, on the other hand, is trying to return to the position it had between 2015-2019, which was established as an alternative. tried to profit from scandals that plagued the current Managersuch as the espionage of journalists or politicians, or the social unrest caused by the February rail crash in the north of the country that killed more than fifty people.
After the polls are closed and the seats are distributed, Greek president Katerina Sakellaropoulou will task the party with the most votes to test the remaining formations to try to forge some kind of alliance. If unsuccessful, the order will go to the second party with the most votes, and if it fails again, it will go to the third party.
After three unsuccessful attempts, Greeks will be called back to the polls after the appointment of an interim administration headed by a representative from the judicial system. At this second appointment, probably on July 2, The system that Mitsotakis had personally encouraged would have already been implemented. and the bonus of the party with the most votes is restored: 20 more seats, up to 50 if it gets 25 percent of the vote.
Analysts firmly agree that this second appointment with the polls will be necessary, but parties will have to measure their moves to avoid being elected as responsible for the lack of consensus. One of the most complex scenarios for New Democracy is, after the first date, It can reach 151 deputies by making an alliance with PASOKin a kind of ‘grand coalition’.
Mitsotakis rejects this cooperation on principle and the Social Democratic leaderNikos Androulakis files criminal complaint against conservatives after he learned that he was being watched by intelligence services. But PASOK is not closing its doors on New Democracy or SYRIZA, in a timid attempt to regain its lost influence on the Greek political scene, conditional on future support for acceptance of part of its political program.
Context
More than 9.8 million people were called to the polls this Sunday, but one thing to consider will be exactly how many will respond. In the last parliamentary elections, the abstention rate exceeded 40 percent.SYRIZA believes this data will increase to enable a greater mobilization of the left and reverse polls.
The economy and unemployment, which hover around 12 percent, continue to be problems of the first degree. among the concerns of ordinary Greeks. The growth, which the European Commission has set as 2.4 percent in its 2023 projections published this week and whose debt level is estimated to be close to 160 percent of GDP, will likewise slow down despite the fact that inflation will follow a moderate course this year.
Immigration remains a recurring topic of discussion –Although the 18,000 entries registered in 2022 are a far cry from the 850,000 in 2015 – and internationally, the focus is on Ukraine due to those stemming from the conflict, but also on Turkey, mainly recurring fights and accusations. due to sovereignty issues.