” crisis when it starts and ends consumer He wants them to begin and end.” Opinion published a few weeks ago, President of the manufacturers and distributors association AECOC, Ignacio GonzalezSeems forward thinking. Because the European Commission or the Bank of Spain, Growth forecasts for the Spanish economy or yesterday CIS published that consumer confidence rose in April, practically consumption does not fluctuate again: Easter He took a deep breath. food industryaccumulated for months sales kickbackSince mid-April, the trend is again negative.
AlgorisA data analytics company consumption Having just introduced its platform to the market, it has detected a significant improvement in the volume of products purchased in the market. Supermarket From mid-March until the week of April 10 (Easter Monday) and the next drop that hasn’t reversed since. In the first week of May, 6% fewer items were purchased at the supermarket than a year ago, and even spend in shopping cart decreased even with (-7.5%) inflation, this should lead to an increase in spending.
HE Aldi Fresco ObservatoryA study, based largely on surveys conducted in April, also shows that 60% of consumers reduce their purchase of fresh produce at the supermarket (bread, Delicatessen, eggs, meat, fish, fruit, vegetable…) and pointing the data in this same direction AECOCHe stated that at the end of April, 45% of consumers agreed that they bought less meat and 39% did the same for fish.
Brake card spending
But the wound seems to go beyond the food universe. Analysis of consumption behavior BBVA Research It shows a graph descending from the first week of April and reaching its lowest point since January 2022, when consumption contracted by 7.8% compared to the previous year, on the first day of May. Consumption is still almost 6% lower as of May 7, although the latest available data shows a slight improvement.
and homologous monitor Caixabank Research3% less detected card payments Spanish buyers at the end of April, who recovered in May but did not progress beyond that. “If we look at face-to-face card consumption (…) we see that the growth rate (9% year-on-year) gives us a relatively positive sign, given that it slightly improves April records. It continues at moderate levels,” he analyzes in his weekly report. economist at Caixabank Research, Javier Ibanez de Aldecoa. The dynamics we have observed in recent months in terms of expenditure sectors continue to get stronger in foreign markets. consumption associated with tourism and leisurein the face of his greatest weakness retail consumption”, adds this specialist.
In fact, a large part of why the decline in consumption hasn’t been more drastic is that tourism (The increase in spending on foreign cards registered by Caixabank varies between 13% and 48% since the beginning of the year) and is due to the good performance of some categories.
Consumption polarization
“Again, there’s a lot of polarization: there are people who are doing well for themselves and spending, and there are people who are fair and put pressure, and it’s getting more and more intense.” Chairman of the Col·legi d’Economistes de Catalunya Retail Commission, Nuria BeltranHe finds the decline in consumption plausible, given that over the years almost half of the Spanish population has acknowledged that they are struggling to make ends meet. According to him, such an economy based on third sector tourism shows signs of improvement at the ‘macro’ level if it is doing well, but is very offended under a ‘micro’ scrutiny when this is the scenario. “Salaries have not advanced and therefore salaries cannot go up much. domestic consumptionmore at one stage increase in electricity pricesbetween fuel And feed as we have,” the economist continues.
On the other hand, it is a fact that Textile, beauty And activity in bars and restaurants they look like a shot, but even here there are nuances. “The textile industry has regressed a lot with the pandemic, so it’s definitely just picking up positions,” Beltran initiatives said.Psychological impact after the pandemic” to explain the good behavior of the event cosmetics industry And bars and restaurants. And although in the first case there is absolute consensus that the beauty is in one of its best moments, in the case of restoration this is not the case. “There are still fewer bars than pre-COVID,” says one industry-savvy source, and many businesses admit they have identified some cost restraint by customers, no matter how full.”