On Sunday, May 21, Greece goes to the polls to determine its political future. At the beginning of the year, the current Greek Prime Minister, Kyriakos MitsotakisHe had everything before him to reaffirm his victory. But at worst, 57 deaths train accident the country’s history has weakened the advantage the Conservative Party had new democracy face to face parliamentary electiongives wings to the opposition. Although his victory seems certain, everything points to something. parliament divided that no entity will have the necessary majority to govern alone.
As in 2019, centre-right is in the best position to control most of the 300 seats to be seized. Polls give the blue formation 36% of the vote, almost four points less than in the last election. Mitsotakis came to power by promising to solve Greece’s economic problems. The word was interrupted by the coup. corona virusimmigration stress Türkiye And energy crisis It was triggered by the war in Ukraine.
After ten years of debt crisis and three bailouts, Greece’s situation has improved a lot. “Mitsotakis can show very good macroeconomic numbers: GDP, foreign investment and tourism are growing while unemployment remains below Spain,” says Cidob researcher Héctor Sánchez Margalef. “Many will bet on that stability.” The prime minister’s popularity has been bolstered by this administration, but has lost power in recent months, which could make his reelection difficult. It now seeks another mandate to achieve 3% annual growth and lower the rate. unemployment under two digits.
Syriza wants a change
The only party that can hope to eclipse New Democracy is Syriza, which is targeting 29% of the vote. The radical left coalition led by former president Alexis Tsipras blamed the government for the security gaps that led to the rail crash that shocked the country.
He also denounced the national scandal caused by spying on rival politicians. Last summer, Mitsotakis had to fire his nephew from a top government post for approving the use of a similar computer virus. Pegasus Trying to infect the Pasok leader’s cell phone with a virus, Nikos Androulakisand two opposition MPs, in addition to at least two journalists. Although Tsipras signed a transparency act for these operations, he wants a commission to be set up to investigate what’s going on.
Pasok has the key
14 years ago pasok It was the strongest party in Greece. Now, after years of crossing the desert for supporting cuts in public spending, the historic social democratic movement is aiming to get 10% of the vote under promises of strengthening the national health system, ecological transition and greater transparency.
The role of the third Hellenic formation can be crucial in these elections, as its support can tip the balance to a blue government or a red government. “Pasok has the key,” says Sánchez Margalef. “Their main option is to form a coalition with ND that the markets will want.” Although the major parties guarantee that they will not cooperate, the absence of an absolute majority may force them to sit at the negotiating table. If neither succeeds in forming a government, Greece will have to repeat elections in early July.
Other formations
The weight loss of ND and Syriza can be offset by a larger role for smaller batches. Anyone who exceeds the 3 percent threshold of the vote will have a seat in the Greek Parliament. This situation communists (KKE) marks an unusual increase of up to 7% of the vote. Behind them, the alternative left formation MeRA25, founded by the former Minister of Finance of Syriza, Yianis Varoufakiswith 4%.
Could it be a left-wing trio? Sánchez Margalef considers this unlikely. On the one hand, because the communists do not want to negotiate with anyone. On the other hand, after the hiatus in 2015, Tsipras and Varoufakis “do not see each other”. “This government option would require a lot of waistline,” adds the Cidob researcher.
Polls also predict 4% of the vote for Greek Solution, an ultranationalist, pro-Russian, religious and conservative right-wing party. Viktor Orban And donald trumpand another 4% for the far-right Greek National Party. Its founder, neo-fascist Ilias Kasidiaris, is serving a 13-year sentence for helping as a spokesperson for the leadership. golden sunriseIt was declared illegal in 2020 for operating as a criminal organization.