Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko confirmed on May 15 the information regarding the crash of four military planes that occurred on May 13 in the Bryansk region of Russia. According to BelTA’s information, he expressed this during his visit to the Air Force and Air Defense Forces Central Command. Officially, the Russian Ministry of Defense has not yet commented on these data.
Lukashenka also noted that after this incident, Belarusian troops were transferred to the first level of readiness.
“Three days after the events near us. That is, in the Bryansk region, when four planes were shot down. We had to answer that. Since then, we have been on higher alert – our troops. Therefore, I am interested in the situation across the country. And, of course, the directions and prospects for the development of this situation. Briefly. Without intimidation. “It’s about what’s going on and what we can expect in the short term.”
In the Russian information space, various versions of the loss of aircraft and helicopters in the Bryansk region have already been amply expressed. For example, the opinion was expressed that “Russian pilots were trapped” (how this could be done in practice was not specified). It was believed that these were the actions of “some saboteurs who were able to cross the border of the Russian Federation and launch missiles from the ground.”
Some experts believed that this was “an attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces with the help of a portable anti-aircraft missile system” (for some reason it is considered almost the most popular version). Other experts are sure that this is “the work of the fighter aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force from the Mirgorod airfield.” There was also a version of the data leak, in which the Ukrainian military was aware of the departure time and exact flight route of Russian planes and helicopters. Finally, some observers are convinced that the incident in the Bryansk region was “the result of friendly fire.”
At the same time, the Russian military probably already knows the true cause of the death of the flight crew, as well as the loss of Russian aircraft and helicopters. The fact is that in the first hours after the crash of the plane, the wreckage of the plane was examined by experts of the Aerospace Forces, and from their results definite conclusions have already been drawn.
Such conclusions are made after examining the outer surface and components of aircraft and helicopters, analyzing the nature of damage, detecting ready-made submunitions from the warheads of enemy anti-aircraft guided missiles. In addition, the military has radar reconnaissance data in the disaster area, which allows them to immediately decommission some versions (such as the action of the Ukrainian Air Force fighter jet from the Mirgorod airfield).
For example, after examining the downed planes and helicopters, you can immediately abandon the version of the destruction of planes by man-portable anti-aircraft missile systems and air-to-air missiles. This conclusion can be drawn categorically only based on the results of the visual inspection and the assessment of the nature of the damage. It should be noted here that MANPADS and aircraft missiles are equipped with a relatively low-power warhead. If undermined, the aircraft sometimes suffers fatal defeats, and in some cases the crew may eject and abandon the aircraft. Such cases were noted during hostilities.
But when the aircraft is physically destroyed in the air and 100% of the crew members die, this means only one thing – Russian aircraft and helicopters were hit by medium-range air defense systems, whose anti-aircraft guided missiles are equipped with a warhead. weighing at least 80-100 kg. So when such a warhead is blown up, the plane will shatter and the crew have no chance of survival.
And now about how it actually happened with a high probability. Apparently, in the border areas of Ukraine with the Bryansk region, one or two anti-aircraft missile divisions (batteries) of armed medium-range air defense systems (including possible candidates Buk, NASAMS, SAMP-T, etc.) Ukrainian forces.
Marches to new starting positions by anti-aircraft missile units were carried out in secret at night, in accordance with all possible security measures. While the material part was deployed near the state border with Russia, radio-technical masking measures were strictly observed, high voltages were not raised at the transmitters to carry out functional control, and the transmitters were not even allowed to operate for equivalent loads. Negotiations on radio and radio relay communication modes were not conducted.
For a successful combat fire, the Ukrainian crew did not need the departure time of the Russian planes and the exact routes of their flights. The firing range of air defense systems and the sector of activity of the antenna phased arrays of multifunctional radars of anti-aircraft missile units make it possible to do without this knowledge. In this case, the external target designation data from the units of the radio engineering troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine conducting reconnaissance in the airspace around the clock in these regions of Ukraine was quite sufficient.
While the Russian Su-34 and Su-35 aircraft were on their way to the launch zones of the anti-aircraft missile divisions, the Ukrainian combat crews applied high voltage to the transmitters, went on the air, intercepted for detection and tracking purposes, and literally seconds later the launch of anti-aircraft guided missiles.
Both aircraft were shot down in less than a minute by a battalion of anti-aircraft missiles or two by heavy fire. Moreover, in this case the units could even have missing equipment (you didn’t need to take all the launchers with you in this mission).
As for the two helicopters, they are unlikely to be part of the same air group as the Su-34 and Su-35 aircraft (and only because of the difference in altitude and flight speeds). Most likely, the rotorcraft was part of the search and rescue group and rushed to the crash site of the bomber and fighter aircraft to save the crew of the crashed plane. And again it came under fire by the anti-aircraft missile units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
After conducting combat fire, units of the anti-aircraft missile forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in a few minutes transferred their supplies to the marching position and made a forced march to their permanent deployment points.
In general, this tactic of combat use of anti-aircraft missile forces is already more than 50 years old. An unexpected situation for planes and helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces was that, most likely, they were fired on the territory of the Russian Federation, several tens of kilometers from the state border, and, most likely, they were not ready for it. . And during an armed conflict with such an enterprising and creative enemy, one must be ready for absolutely anything.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the opinion of the editors.
Author biography:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military observer of socialbites.ca, a retired colonel.
Graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-aircraft Missile School (1976),
Air Defense Military Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile battalion (1980–1983).
Deputy commander of an anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986–1988).
Senior officer of the Main Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988–1992).
Chief of the General Staff Main Operations Directorate (1992–2000).
Graduate of the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000–2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010–2015).