The UN reviewed this Tuesday raised its forecasts for the world economy and now expects 2.3% growth for this year Thanks to better prospects in the United States, Europe and China.
Organization improved his calculation by four-tenths Regarding its release in January, but The 2024 forecast worsened by two-tenthswhen you expect the world to grow by 2.5%.
In a report, the United Nations attributes its 2023 review mainly to the resilience of household spending in the US, developments due to the decline in consumption and gas prices in the European Union (EU), and high growth in China. lifting restrictions imposed by covid-19.
As a positive element, the organization highlights above all the strength of the labor market in advanced economies, with high employment rates in the United States and Europe and wage improvements in many places.
By the way, it points to exactly this: This makes it difficult for central banks to control inflation.He warns that more cooperation is needed so that the strong monetary regulation, which is quite high and seen in many countries, does not sink the economies of developing countries.
Developments and risks in the United States
UN hopes US economy grew 1.1 percent this year (7-tenths more than predicted in January), but it also warns that “significant weaknesses” have emerged in recent months, such as the recent banking crisis and difficulties in controlling inflation.
United Nations at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024 contraction in the real estate market and loan demand as a result of predictable adjustmentsthis should reduce spending and investment.
In 2024, it expects US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow 1%, seven-tenths less than before.
A Europe more resilient than expected
In the European example, the reporting economies “they have proven to be more durable than previously expected” and therefore, the growth forecast for this year improves by 7% to 0.9%.
“Despite high energy prices, Persistent inflation and aggressive monetary tightening weighed heavily on economic growth.“So far, most countries have recovered from a recession and the short-term outlook has improved,” the document said, which does not provide country-by-country data.
For 2024, the UN cut its growth forecast for the EU by a tenth to 1.5%.
In the case of United KingdomUN still waiting economic contraction this yearbut less than expected, only 0.1% and a recovery of 1.1% next year.
One of the biggest changes regarding the United Nations report in January is happening in Russia, as it predicted a 2.9% decline at the time.clock expects only 0.6%.
The Chinese economy, which is one of the biggest engines of world growth, will grow by 5.3% (five-tenths) this year and 4.5% (unchanged) next year, thanks to the recovery in consumption and investments after the end of 2019. Most of the emergency measures taken during the pandemic.
No change in Latin America
In Latin America and the Caribbean, the UN maintains its growth forecast of 1.4% for this year and revises its 2024 forecast by one-tenth to 2.4%, Considering that he warned in January and the slowdown affecting Argentina, Chile, Brazil and Colombia has been confirmed.
The Organization emphasizes that although 2023 will be less bleak than the United Nations initially expected, the world faces the possibility of a prolonged period of low growth due to the effects of the pandemic, the growing impact of climate change and macroeconomic problems. unresolved problems.
This is particularly problematic for regions like Africa and Latin America, which seem to have been confirmed. long-term recession and when economies fail to facilitate investment deemed necessary for the future.