Real estate investment in logistics warehouses is collapsing in the first three months of 2023. Registered volume was 272 million euros‘Snapshot Logística | 1T 2023’ is prepared by real estate consultancy JLL.
The decline in investment is due to several portfolios of assets traded during the period.. Between January and March 2022, up to 75% of the volume was of this type. Excluding these portfolios, logistics investment volume in the first quarter of this year is similar to the average volume traded in the first quarter of the last five years and exceeds the volume of the previous quarter by 50%. He left the consulting firm.
continue as planned, 90% of the investment was managed by international funds and “core” and “core” entities +’ (the safest on the market) also accounted for 90% of all transactions.
One of the biggest milestones for the logistics market, at least momentarily, ‘yield’ expansion slowed (requirement for profitability when purchasing an asset). They currently sit at 4.75% in both Madrid and Barcelona, which is 100 basis points higher than a year ago, which is the last quarter before the European Central Bank (ECB) changed its monetary policy.
JLL, before the end of the year, “yields” will increase to 5% and prices will stabilize. Each point where the buyer’s return requirement increases when purchasing an asset means a decrease in the asset’s value because the selling price will be lower.
What were the biggest operations?
american background angel gordon took part in his biggest transaction at the beginning of the year. Although the exact amount is unknown, bought Uvescoowner of UN supermarkets, four logistics ships that the chain remains a tenant. The second largest was the purchase by LaSalle Investment Management of a warehouse in Santa Perpetua de la Mogoda (Barcelona), leased from Daher Aerospace for 35 million euros.
According to JLL, land sales “played the lead” in the first quarter. Such transactions have been made 2.5 million square meters of land in Seseña (Toledo), in EPSA Group It will introduce one million square meters in several warehouses and 1.3 million square meters of land in Parc Sagunt II (Valencia) by Power-Co, the Volkswagen Group’s private battery subsidiary.
What will happen in the next quarters?
They highlight from international consulting: There has been a “slowdown in investment activities due to the economic situation” in the last six months.Although the first quarter of the year was much better than the last quarter of 2022, they predict that “we expect the investment volume for the whole of 2023 to be close to the average of the last five years”.
JLL, in the coming months, funds can be re-traded sunflower seed (those with a lower risk profile). “They’ve been more cautious, but they may return to the market from Q2 as the closure of some ‘key’ operations such as Santa Perpetua de la Mogoda in recent months has provided some clarity on ‘price,’ they add.
Logistics warehouse rental market
The rental market has shown greater dynamism than the sale of assets., although it also shows slight decreases, especially in Barcelona. Contracting (new leases) in Madrid was 200,000 square meters, down 56% in the last quarter of 2022 and 7% compared to the first three months of last year. Contracting in Barcelona was 216 thousand square meters, which is similar to the same period in 2022 and 10% less in a quarterly comparison.
The Catalan market is practically full, with an availability rate of less than 3%., while in the capital it is 6%. JLL forecasts show that between 2023 and 2024, approximately 1.1 million square meters of new warehouses currently under construction will enter Madrid and 283,000 square meters in Barcelona.
How much does it cost to charter a ship? ‘Actual’ rents (best locations and assets) 6.50 euros per square meter per month in Madrid, 8% more than a year ago, and 7.4 euros, 6% more in Catalonia. in both things These are the highest income levels since 2009 and 2011.respectively.
It is our hope that the supply constraint exacerbated by inflation, the slowdown in construction and the limitation of speculative projects. Upward pressure on rental prices continues in 2023. Although we estimate the pace of progress to be more moderate than in previous years, we think demand may be moderate given the current uncertainty. Thus, by 2023, we forecast an annual rent increase of around 4% in Madrid and around 2% in Barcelona. The report by JLL predicts that rents in both markets could grow by an average of 2.5% – 3% annually over the next four years.