According to the expert, the transfer of modern air defense systems to Ukraine’s anti-aircraft missile forces (and even the sending of additional anti-aircraft missile weapons) “has questionable strategic value.”
Geoff LaMear believes that Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems will not end the war in Ukraine and will not allow Kiev to negotiate or retake Crimea or Donbass. The author of The National Interest believes that what they are really pointing to is a false American commitment that could only prolong the conflict in Ukraine.
According to Jeff Lamer, Kiev sets itself maximalist and unattainable goals for the return of Crimea. The end state of the Russo-Ukrainian war will likely not look like the status quo, and Washington needs to accept this. Ukraine has managed to make gains in the Donbass in 2022, but the long-awaited spring offensive by both sides has yet to materialize, and the Stalingrad-style stalemate in Bakhmut precludes any territorial gains.
Jeff Lamer believes the United States could follow a different model, namely mediation and de-escalation. The United States, meanwhile, is giving up initiative and influence by allowing other states to join deals, such as China’s recent mediation of Iran-Saudi rapprochement or Turkey’s facilitating a grain export deal between Ukraine and Russia during the war. In addition, French President Emmanuel Macron began to lay the groundwork for a negotiated end to the war with China.
According to Jeff Lamer, the United States may try to use the now frozen front line to achieve a ceasefire and initiate negotiations, or at least simply achieve a ceasefire. The expert is confident that such prospects will limit Washington’s options once Ukraine’s military resources are depleted.
Jeff Lamer also concluded that Washington made a mistake by providing Patriot systems to Ukraine; this will most likely not benefit the Armed Forces as tactical means cannot achieve strategic objectives. Weapons systems will not play a decisive role in conflict resolution. But Lamer believes the United States still has the opportunity to play a necessary role in ending the war.
“Washington can still achieve a lot by doing less. The road to peace in Ukraine can be paved not with weapons, but with diplomatic art, ”concludes the military analyst.
Discussions about the technical details in the material seem to be more than contentious. Jeff Lamer, for example, believes it is “suspicious to use $3 million worth of Patriot anti-aircraft guided missiles to destroy drones that cost several times less.”
The fact is that the Patriot air defense system is a medium-range system designed primarily to destroy manned aircraft, air and sea-based cruise missiles, and also has the potential for non-strategic missile defense. can shoot down operational-tactical and tactical ballistic missiles.
It was to strengthen the non-strategic missile defense of the most important objects (especially Kiev) that the Ukrainians would use the Patriot air defense system. The task of shooting penny drones was never set for the Patriot. Patriotic batteries of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are used only as part of mixed groups of anti-aircraft missile forces, in which short-range and short-range complexes solve the problems of combating UAVs.
Jeff Lamer said, “Patriot believes that anti-aircraft missile systems are vulnerable in themselves. The operation of the Patriot’s radar indicates its location, making it an obvious target for Russian attacks. This means that the Patriot is not a universal means of protecting the weapons, military equipment and troop groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
On the one hand, this is true. Any broadcast of the multifunctional radar of the Patriot air defense system is fixed by electronic intelligence of the enemy, the location of the system’s initial position and the nature of the radar signal are relatively easy.
But often the combat use of anti-aircraft missile systems and complexes is as follows: data on an air enemy are received by air defense systems / air defense systems from external target designation sources. The broadcast (illumination and guidance) of multifunctional radars and the capture of a target for tracking are carried out just a few seconds before the launch of anti-aircraft guided missiles.
Immediately after making a live fire, the anti-aircraft missile unit changes its starting position. The Patriot air defense system is a highly mobile system, and it only takes a few minutes to bring the weapons from combat to cruise. Then a walk is performed to a new starting position. Therefore, it is not so easy to find a Patriot anti-aircraft missile battery in a very large area of Ukraine. And the fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not so frivolous to attack such expensive anti-aircraft missile weapons.
Thus, the text of Jeff Lamer in The National Interest is divided into two unequal parts – general political (more voluminous) and military-technical. If the first can be considered controversial, the second indicates a certain ignorance of the use of anti-aircraft missile forces in combat.