HE gas consumption In Europe, which had already fallen by 16% in the last heating seasonIt will fall by 5% in the whole of 2023, especially thanks to the expansion of renewable energy sources for electricity generation.
In its quarterly report on the gas market, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released this Thursday, The “cautious optimism” scenariovery different from what existed a year before the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which raised fears of supply problems.
Globally, calculate this Gas consumption will remain stagnant this yearAfter a 1.5% drop in 2022, similar to what occurred in 2020 due to the covid lockdowns, and in this case due to reduced imports from Europe and Asia.
This happened in the context of rising gas prices due to the outbreak of war in Ukraine, and this was directly related to the brutal cutback (80% year-over-year) in gas pipeline shipments from Russia to Europe.
All this has affected energy-intensive industries, this has reduced production in some cases, but has also led to greater use of coal as a substitute, the implementation of energy efficiency measures and increased use of renewable energy sources.
China and the Middle East attract demand
By 2023, the main growth vectors will be Asia, With a 3% progress to be outweighed by China (+6%), thanks to the recovery of its activity and its industry using more gas, and a 2% increase thanks to the Middle East, particularly Iran and Saudi Arabia.
in Europe, sharp decrease in gas consumption in the recently finished heating season (about 25 billion cubic meters less) is partly due to mild temperatures, particularly in October and the first half of November.
These climatic conditions explain 40% of the declines in the residential and commercial sectors, which have a fundamental impact on austerity measures, installation of heat pumps or behavioral changes.
On the other hand, the volume of gas used to generate electricity during the same heating season It fell 12% due to a close to 7% drop in electricity consumption in Europe.
Much less gas for electricity in Europe
5% decrease in demand in Europe for the whole of 2023 The approximately 15% reduction in gas use will be substantial. electricity is being replaced by new renewable plants.
On the contrary, a 5% increase in the European industry is projected, as the price situation in the European industry has changed completely and after the peaks reached in the summer of 2022, there is a decline between mid-December and the end of the first quarter of 2023. was almost 70%.
Following strong demand growth in North America in 2022, the IEA It will decrease by 2% this year..
The authors of the report emphasize that there are a number of uncertainties and risks that hover above their initially reassuring estimates.
Among them, they highlight the possibility of adverse weather conditions such as a very dry summer or a colder-than-normal winter, as well as an even more pronounced stop in the shipment of Russian gas to Europe via pipelines, as well as a lower-than-expected presence. liquefied natural gas (LNG).
In principle, LNG supply will increase by 4% (equivalent to approximately 20,000 million cubic meters) and Half of this promotion will come from the United Stateswill become the world leader in gas exports by sea.