The report states that if Ukraine does not show significant results in the counterattack, it may lose the support of its Western partners. article NYT.
“Without a decisive victory, Western support for Ukraine may dwindle and Kiev may come under increasing pressure to enter into serious negotiations to end or freeze the conflict.”
He writes the NYT.
US officials are concerned about whether the amount of weapons transferred by the allies will be enough for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Experts contacted by the NYT state that the Ukrainian army is using so much ammunition to hold Bakhmut (Artemivsk) that it could hurt a future counterattack. In this regard, the Pentagon expressed its concerns to the authorities in Kiev and warned them that Ukraine was wasting ammunition at a crucial moment. As the newspaper noted, the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Artemovsk also lost a large number of military personnel from the most experienced units. It is possible that there will be a “lock-in” on the front in this regard.
“If the Ukrainian Armed Forces continues to spend ammunition at the current rate, Ukraine’s stocks of anti-aircraft missiles and artillery shells may run out. Once the offensive is over, there is little chance of repeating the amount of supplies that the West transferred to the Ukrainian offensive in the foreseeable future, as Western allies do not have sufficient stocks and will be domestic production. It will not fill the gap until next year,” say experts.
The article also says that the Ukrainian army almost never attacked Russian logistics centers in the rear, since the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not provide missiles with the required range.
In total, 12 brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with 4,000 soldiers each will participate in the counterattack, 9 of which are trained and supplied by the USA and NATO.
According to the publication, US military officials still admit that Ukrainian troops “may surprise them again” because they are armed with European tanks and American armored personnel carriers. Washington hopes that “Ukrainian troops will use trickery and trickery to confuse the Russians.”
“Everything depends on this counterattack. Everyone is hopeful, maybe too optimistic. However, Alexander Vershbow, a former US ambassador to Russia and a senior official, said: “It will determine whether it will be a good outcome for the Ukrainians in terms of returning the land to the battlefield and creating much more substantial leverage to reach some sort of negotiated settlement.” NATO official.
In contrast, the Politico publication referring to the US presidential administration writerThat Kiev would find itself in a situation where, in the event of an unsuccessful attack, the allies would begin to push Ukraine into negotiations with Moscow. Washington fears they will be caught between two fires: one side will blame them for the administration’s failure to send everything Kiev wants to Ukraine, including long-range missiles, warplanes and additional air defense systems, while the other side will claim it. Ukraine’s failure proves its inability to overthrow Russia. The administration emphasizes that they are doing everything possible to ensure the success of the Ukrainian offensive.
iconic war
The day before, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot leave Artemivsk, otherwise the Russian troops will have the opportunity to occupy more territory – full control over the city will create a “springboard” for further attacks on Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. The Ukrainian leader stated that “a fierce battle is ongoing against the Russian Wagner group” in the city. Despite claims by some analysts that the city is of little strategic importance, Zelenskiy insists Ukraine will not give up.
In turn, the head of Ukrainian intelligence, Kirill Budanov, expressed the opinion that Ukraine is approaching a turning point war in its recent history. Budanov added that the information about the beginning of this war was kept secret.
“Like it or not, we are approaching a turning point in Ukraine’s modern history. It’s a fact, everyone understands that,” he said.
On the eve of the founder of the PMC “Wagner” Yevgeny Prigozhin said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will go on a counterattack after the complete capture of Artemovsk by Russian troops. According to Prigozhin, this choice of starting point for the offensive is due to the rainy weather, in which tanks can now only move on the roads, as well as the intention of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to connect the counterattack to 9 May. We have a mental addiction from the holidays.”
“Once Bakhmut is taken, Zelensky will need the ultimate victory. <..> Zelensky needs to hit without missing, and he does it extremely professionally, no matter how much he is criticized.”
Western and Ukrainian representatives have been reporting for several months about the impending counterattack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. On April 15, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced on his Twitter account that the attack would begin “in the near future”. According to him, the goal of the Ukrainian army is to reach the 1991 borders. The American magazine Newsweek, referring to the leaked secret US documents, wrote that the attack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was planned for April 30. Also in the media, unnamed European and American officials expressed doubts about the effectiveness of the upcoming offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In addition, American intelligence documents leaked online in early April contain a “gloomy assessment” of the possibility of an attack by Ukraine, with the Pentagon believing that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will make “modest territorial gains” but can build a foothold. A larger operation as early as 2024.