India By the end of the month, it will be the most populated country in the world.As endorsed by the UN in its latest updated projection of the evolution of the world’s population.
Although it was already known that April will be the month of “sorpasso”, these numbers, refined within weeks, show that: The population of India will have reached a total of 1,425,775,850 people.A figure that documents its place as the most populous country and is expected to continue to rise for several decades.
A UN report released Monday said that while China once had a population of 1,426 million in 2022, that number has only fallen since then, starting a trend that will drop below 1 billion by the end of this century.
population changes
This changes in fertility this new position of both countries explains: in 1971 both countries had similar fertility rates (5 to 6 children per woman); China has reduced that rate to 3 children per woman in just seven years; this is a decline that took three and a half years for India.
In 2022 the trend was already much more similar: China has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world. (1.2 children per woman), but also indian (2 children per woman) fell below the so-called “demographic refresh rate” that scientists set at 2.1.
One phenomenon both countries are already experiencing is the rapid aging of the population: Between this year and 2050, the number of people over 65 in China will nearly double and more than double, according to the latest bulletin from the UN Department of Social Affairs. in India.
But the percentages of older people in the entire population show very different realities: The number of working-age adults in India will rise steadily over this half century, which will mean more job opportunities and higher economic growth.
On the contrary, Population in the 25-64 age group will soon peak in China and begin to declinewhich means a narrower window of economic opportunity.