In 2019, historian Dagauh Komenan (1989, Ivory Coast) warned during a speech that a Russian attack on Mali was imminent, but they laughed at it. The presence of the Eurasian giant on the African continent today is a fact that undermines France’s influence. The expert proposes a solution: If Europe wants to regain its dominance in the region, it must listen to the African people, not just its elites.
You say that Africa prefers Russia, why?
Because There is a huge lack of information in Europe. african continent. This is something I noticed while living here in the Canary Islands. A silly example is the African population bomb, which is the pillar of cooperation between Africa and Europe. I’ll say something that will surprise you: if you take the entire population of sub-Saharan Africa and concentrate it in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the result is the same population density as India. The entire population of sub-Saharan Africa is less than that of India. The second problem is that many mistakes are made because Europe is not clear about this African reality.
Because?
because in Europe you’re listening to the African elite or the diaspora living here. The people there do not have the same aspirations, they are different. Those who live there like much simpler, different things. This disconnect between the European elite and the people resulted in discontent and frustration. For example, in 1994 the African countries of the so-called Franz-Africa had to devalue their currency. People lost half their purchasing power overnight. That decision was taken in Paris, it was imposed. These interventions caused public resentment against Europe. Russia, China, as well as Türkiye and India have benefited from this. Nobody talks about India because it is a friend of the West.
Is this Russian presence in Africa more economic or diplomatic?
Russia in the economic field Only 5% of trade in Africa, but listening to the European media, their influence in this sense seems brutal. Where is it important? In the diplomatic field. Because? Because after independence, there has always been Franz-Africa, a neo-colonial system that France used to keep its former colonies in orbit. One of the main elements of this system is the currency. I am an Ivorian and we share its currency, the CFA franc, with thirteen other countries. It is produced in France and for this we need to deliver half of the GDP to that country. Half of every year since 1960. Every time an African president tries to get out of this financial system, I don’t know if it’s a coincidence because I’m not a conspirator. there is a blow or death. It happened in Mali in 1966. Franz-Afrika saw an escape route to this problem in Russia.
It seems to exist as a trauma associated with the West.
Definitely. It is not colonization itself, but predation that continues to this day. That is, the mentality of “If we cannot rely on the support of Western countries, we will rely on the enemies of the West” is instilled.
Do Chinese and Russian influences overlap or complement each other?
It’s like a tandem. One is selling security by playing the tyrant Russia, and the other is China, who finances it. Sudan is a perfect example. China buys and Russia put a military base. For this, the Russians have the Wagner group, which provides security to countries that fear Western retaliation for taking actions against the interests of Europe and the United States.
In which countries does Russia operate?
Especially in Mali, Central African Republic, Sudan and Libya. Generally speaking, we are talking about countries suffering from conflict situations where the West somehow assumes some of the responsibility and does not want to help find a solution. For example, in the Central African Republic in 2016, French President François Hollande decided to end the French intervention in the country. They split because there were democratic elections while there were three active rebel movements. Seeking support, the African state found Russian Foreign Minister Seré Lavrov. and now the Central African Republic is the epicenter of Russian intervention on the continent. The same thing happened in Mali after the French-backed coup.
He previously chose the Wagner group. What role does he play in the raid?
the key is Russia intervenes in Africa without risking its army. To do this, he uses Wagner, a paramilitary organization operating as a private company. It is he who acts on the Russian bases of the continent. But Wagner goes beyond security, he also trades in gold mining or beer imports in these countries.
Is this company behind the coups in the Sahel countries?
It is not known for sure, it is appreciated that if they are behind anyone, it was indirectly. It’s interesting because, for example, in Libya, France and Wagner are on the same side. They indirectly support General Khalifa Haftar, who controls the east of the country. In Sudan, the situation is more complex.. Wagner, Russia, plays both sides of the conflict.
Faced with Russian interference, isn’t France moving to regain influence?
No, he’s not making a diplomatic counterattack. Russia has ensured that it has strong state support in the countries where it was founded. There was almost a counterattack in the Central African Republic. France supported the rebels and Russia supported the government. wagner was there.
In short, France is losing its influence in Africa.
The only influence it has is on the elite. In Niger, where France transferred the forces in Mali, there are daily protests for them to leave, but the government says no, Niger and France have good relations.
This war in ukraine Does it have something to do with Russia’s focus on Africa?
Too much. In fact, with the occupation of Crimea since 2014, Russian influence began to gain weight in the continent. They followed the Chinese model. This is based on providing a way out of the suffocation that the Bretton Woods institutions, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have produced in African countries since the 1990s by Western institutions.
According to him, there is a kind of new Cold War going on in Africa.
And what scares me is that the Cold War was cold in Europe, but not elsewhere in the world.
The important thing is jihadism, is Russia taking advantage of it to enter?
On the African continent, unlike the Middle East, jihadism is seen as a form of the Islamist far right. Russia is being sold as a way out of this whole conflict. They managed to defeat the jihadists in Chechnya, so sell that success. It also sells that they helped Bashar Assad defeat the jihadists in Syria.
What will happen in a few years?
I think Russia is an opportunist. The actor that should propose a new union is the European Union. As paradoxical as it may seem, Africans love the West. If they come here, it’s because they like it. If they go to Russia and do not come here, it is because their model, their way of thinking is closer to Europe than to Russia. But heThe old continent’s way of cooperating is very harmful and Russia is taking advantage of it.. Europe must listen to what Africans have to say.