We live on a planet that has shrunk for us.The room of our children’s games seems small when we return as adults. The circumference of the earth is just over 40,000 km, which we have repeatedly accumulated on the odometers of our cars.
More than 8,000 million people live on this “small” planet every day, consuming enormous resources and producing enormous amounts of waste. It doesn’t seem daring to think we’re going to have a global impact on the world. Science confirms thisthe first and most visible manifestation of this human condition on the so-called planet. global warming.
Global warming and its effects
along In the 1980s, the global average surface air temperature began to rise, such an increase can still be explained by the highly erratic natural behavior of climatic variables.
As we enter the last decade of the last century, the net thermal increase, confirmed in the array of records from observations of artificial satellites by numerous meteorological stations and natural indicators, began to be statistically significant. Global warming can already be mentioned.
The IPCC’s Sixth Report, the most complete assessment of recent climate evolution and future projection, Determined the temperature rise of 1.1℃ in the second decade of the 21st century Regarding the reference period established in the second half of the 19th century.
A temperature increase of one and one tenth over a century doesn’t seem like much. But in a little over a century, such a value is a very significant increase at the global level, representing a huge heat storage in the Earth system.
Thermal rise would be 1.2℃ (65℉) today, close to one and a half degrees, which is considered a threshold that should not be reached, as it has been repeatedly reminded and agreed upon at the international COP meetings (conference of the parties). Otherwise, very serious or irreversible effects will occur for our lives and property.
Warming is also bringing other effects, such as the shrinking of Arctic sea ice and Greenland and Antarctic land ice, and an almost widespread retreat of mountain glaciers.
Another disturbing effect is sea level rise is estimated to average about 4 mm per year. As with the rise in temperature, it is difficult to raise public concerns about a fact that may seem trivial, but would mean two inches of sea level rise in a century and the consequent rise in sea level. negative impact on mostly densely populated coasts.
The vulnerability of the Mediterranean basin
in the field The increase in temperature in the Mediterranean basin, which includes most of the Spanish mainland and the Balearic Islands, is greater than the global increase, to talk to someone hot spot, that is, a region particularly sensitive to warming. A recent forecast has placed it at 1.4℃, which will already reach one and a half degrees today.
Although the seasonal precipitation regime has changed in favor of autumn with a decrease in spring precipitation, which in many cases is vital for rain fed crops, precipitation, unlike temperature, still does not show trends in most regions.
Drought and heat waves
The increase in meteorological risks is another feature of climate change: they are already more frequent, intense and long-lasting. In the case of Spain, they mainly take the form of heat waves and droughts.
When both phenomena occur simultaneously with droughts and heatwaves in each of the summer months in many Spanish communities, as in the summer of 2022, their impact on agriculture, ecosystems and the economy in general is more serious. is more than the sum of what is produced by both extremes separately.
Tropical nights and burning nights
In cities in the southern half of Spain and the rest of the Mediterranean coast, the local heat island phenomenon – warming at night in the center of cities as opposed to the surrounding area – is causing a dramatic increase in the tropical climate. nights. These nights, which are defined as the nights when the thermometer does not drop below 20 °C, are the nights with bad sleep.
Even the appearance or more frequent occurrence at night was appreciated. Minimum temperature equal to or greater than 25℃, which we recommend denomination warm nights.
Extreme heat negatively affects the health of the elderly or those with chronic diseases, increasing morbidity and mortality rates. This This is especially critical for people living in a state of energy poverty.that is, there is no air conditioning unit or they cannot use it due to the high energy cost.
Fossil fuels and the climate emergency
If the evidence of global warming is too obvious to be debated in denialist circles any longer, the reason for the newest workhorse of denialism is certain to science today: mainly fossil fuels (coal, coal, oil, and natural gas) and general changes in land use. Then there is no need to waste your time with empty arguments.
Turning to the global perspective, we are talking about a climate emergency today. This has been declared or adopted by public institutions, universities and research centers and other institutions and groups.
The climate system, especially the ocean, exhibits great inertia in its thermal behavior. Sea waters do not change temperature easily.
Water is a substance with a high specific heat, so it has to give a lot of heat to raise its temperature and lose a lot of heat to lower it. This makes Even if the use of fossil fuels were banned tomorrow, it would take several decades to reverse the warming.
Therefore, it is necessary to act with the utmost urgency so that it is as little as possible.. To make an analogy, the planet is like an ocean liner that moves at a higher speed than it should or on the wrong course as it approaches port. At the last minute, we won’t be able to avoid colliding with the pier due to the inertia of its movement.
climate future
Climate models tell us that with a major effort to reduce greenhouse gases for the remainder of the decade, in particular, With a 45% reduction compared to 2010 emissions, we will be able to achieve so-called carbon neutrality by the middle of the century. In other words, emissions that could be produced in 2050 will be offset by capture via natural systems or certain technologies.
In this way, it will reach 1.5℃ warming, descend slightly, and fall below this threshold by the end of the century.. If we continue to base our energy model on fossil fuels and, in general, with a consumerist economic model with GDP as the main indicator of progress, the temperature will start to warm by more than 4℃ by the end of the year. century, an unimaginable scenario.
The future depends on us, 8 billion peopleIt will be close to 10 billion by the middle of the century. In any case, in addition to the mandatory reduction, that is, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, it is also necessary to adapt to new climatic conditions in order to reduce the risks they bring.
Javier Martin-Vide
geographer and mathematician; Professor of Physical Geography at the University of Barcelona.
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Reference article: https://telos.fundaciontelefonica.com/el-calentamiento-global-en-nivel-de-emergencia-climatica/
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