Global CO2 emissions from electricity could fall as early as 2023

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An international report has just provided promising news about the global energy future more urgent. This wind and solar power grew from 10% in 2021 to 12% of global electricity in 2022.according to the latest report World Electricity Review 2023 Prepared by Ember, an independent organization dedicated to energy analysis. Actually, this year could be the “beginning of the end” for fossil fuels in this sectorGiven that a downward curve is expected in its global role from now on, according to the report.

Record growth in wind and solar energy, Global emissions from electricity to reach lowest point in recent history in 2022. While these emissions haven’t started to drop yet, experts already think it’s something close.

Carbon emissions from electricity generation worldwide in 2022 dropped to a record low of 436 gCO2/kWh, representing the cleanest electricity in history. This was due to record growth in wind and solar, reaching 12% of the global power mix compared to 10% in 2021.

On the whole, All electricity sources that do not emit CO2 (renewable as well as nuclear) produced an all-time high of 39% of global electricity.. Solar power generation increased by 24%, making it the fastest growing electricity source for 18 consecutive years. Wind energy production, on the other hand, increased by 17%.

Evolution and emission prediction Blind

More than sixty countries on the planet currently generate more than 10% of their electricity from wind and solar power.. However, other sources that do not emit CO2 have declined for the first time since 2011 due to the decline in nuclear production and the commissioning of fewer new nuclear and hydroelectric power plants.

In the case of Spain, the data is even better., because it is at the forefront of renewable energy use in Europe. Thus, seven EU countries, including Germany (32%), Spain (33%) and the Netherlands (32%), generated around a third or more of their electricity from wind and solar power in 2022.

Coal and gas finally stopped

In 2022, emissions from the electricity sector increased (+1.3%) and reached an all-time high. The report explains that electricity is cleaner than ever before, but we’re using it much more.

Dirty fonts are clearly in decline. Coal production increased by only 1.1%, the same as the average growth of the last decade. In addition, the feared increase in the production of this fossil fuel did not materialize as feared in principle. “The reduction of coal-generated electricity agreed at the Conference of the Parties (COP26) in 2021 may not have started in 2022, but The energy crisis has not resulted in a significant increase in coal burning, as many feared.”, is stated in the report.

Wind and sun reach their destination verified

Moreover, gas-fired electricity generation slightly decreased (-0.2%) in 2022 for the second time in three yearsAs a result of high gas prices around the world. The transition from gas to coal in 2022 was very limited, as gas was already significantly more expensive than coal in 2021. Only 31 GW of new gas-fired power plants were built in 2022, the lowest level in 18 years. However, 2022 saw the lowest number of coal plant shutdowns in seven years as countries sought to maintain spare capacity even as the transition accelerated.

Therefore, wind and solar power manage to significantly slow the increase in emissions from the electricity sector before they are effectively reduced. In its place, If all electricity from wind and solar came from fossil fuels, by 2022 electricity sector emissions would be 20% higher. Therefore, the difference is striking.

In 2022, 80% of the increase in worldwide electricity demand (+694 TWh) was met by wind and solar generation growth (+557 TWh) alone. Clean electricity growth is likely to outpace electricity demand growth in 2023 – this will be the first year this has happened for reasons other than the economic downturn.

First real reduction in 2023?

“With the average increase in electricity and clean electricity demand, We expect to see a small decline in fossil fuel production (-47 TWh, -0.3%) in 2023 and larger declines in the following years. as wind and solar power gets bigger. This means that by 2022 the ‘peak’ of emissions will have been reached. A new era of decline in emissions from the electricity sector is coming”, predict the authors of the report.

so they add “2022 will be remembered as a turning point in the world’s transition to clean electricity.

The invasion of Ukraine has caused many governments to reconsider their energy plans because of rising fossil fuel prices and their interest in not relying on fossil fuel imports. Also, electrification has accelerated: more heat pumps, more electric vehicles and more electrolyzers. Ember says these factors will reduce emissions from other industries and put more pressure to produce clean electricity faster.

coal mine in india Altaf Kadri/AP

“A new era is coming in which emissions from the electricity sector are reduced thanks to strong wind and solar energy.During this decade, which should maintain high growth rates even as they mature. While all other clean sources of electricity need to grow more, more emphasis should be placed on efficiency to prevent uncontrolled growth in electricity demand. Integrating wind and solar into the grid requires urgent work: planning permits, making grid connections, ensuring grid flexibility and market design.

Małgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, a senior analyst at Ember, says: “This decisive climate decade marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel age. We are on the threshold of the clean electricity era. There will be a reduction in electricity from coal and, for the first time, a reduction in natural gas. The stage was set for wind and solar energy to rapidly rise to the top of the electricity sector and reshape the entire sector. Change is coming. We should have hope, but much work remains to be done during this decade of practice. Everything will depend on the steps governments, companies and citizens take to get the world clean electricity by 2040.”

ANDThe report analyzes electricity data from 78 countries representing 93% of electricity demand globally, including predicted changes in the remaining generation. In addition, an in-depth analysis is carried out on the top ten CO2 emitting countries and regions, which account for more than 80% of CO2 emissions globally.

The full content of the report, in this link.

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Environment department contact address: [email protected]

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