Ukraine first suffered an ordeal to acquire basic weapons and anti-aircraft systems; then he fought to get advanced tanks and later large-scale ammunition, because everything in his hands is destroyed like wildfire in a war where a bullet or a bullet is fired every second. But the problem you are facing now is more difficult to solve. He wants to launch a counterattack in the spring to reclaim the land.. However, this requires a very high number of soldiers to defend, at the order of three times. There are doubts about having what is necessary. And the West, which has become the main supplier of military equipment, will not help him there. There will not be large masses of soldiers from NATO countries in the Ukrainian war. Meanwhile, Russia, taking advantage of months of stagnation on the battlefield, built trenches and fortifications in the east of the country.
Historically, military strategists have taken into account the 3-to-1 rule when planning attacks: the attacker has a chance to win a war, The forces must be three times as many as the defending forces.. It’s a flexible rule of course. A much more advanced and technical army and better intelligence on enemy forces or missiles with greater range and power can reduce the rate.
The total number of Russian troops stationed in Ukraine to defend the occupied eastern parts of the country is unknown. At the start of the war, it was estimated that 150,000 soldiers would launch the invasion. There have been several conscriptions since then, but also tens of thousands of casualties. But this order of magnitude indicates that the demand for Ukrainian troops for an all-out counterattack is huge.
Ukraine Modernizing the Armed Forces with western weapons. However, he also loses some of those sent to the battlefield. Now he hopes to activate the modern tank battalions sent by the West soon: 14 British Challenger 2, 150 German Leopard 2 or 30 American Abrams… Even sending fighter jets is no longer something to be denied behind closed doors. to Spanish diplomatic sources. There may be guns, but will there be men?
Ukrainian counterattack and leaked documents
In the massive leak of Pentagon documents last week, US military advisers believe the troop shortage, combined with the shortage of ammunition and weapons, could cause the Ukrainian Armed Forces to be “far off” from their original targets for a counteroffensive. They planned to launch it this spring to try to reclaim areas controlled by Russia.
“No one knows for sure how many soldiers the Ukrainian Armed Forces have. It looks like they’re preparing for three new counterattacks. army units (corps) with about 45,000 volunteers. “There is consensus that they have reserved troops for this attack,” he told EL PERIÓDICO DE ESPAÑA of the Prensa Ibérica group. Borja Lasheras, Special Adviser to the EU External Action Service for Ukraine. A army unit It is equivalent to two to five military divisions (15,000 soldiers each) and is commanded by a lieutenant general. It is the highest level of operational combat command.
The analyst, who frequently travels to Ukraine and sees the realities on the ground, admits that the Ukrainian Army has suffered a lot, especially from delays in arms shipments from the West. For example, he lost many people. Highly experienced mechanized units in the Donbass wars. And the new fresh units mobilized do not have the same formation. “Perhaps they do not have the necessary military capabilities, but this is due, among other things, to the fact that they are not given the necessary capabilities,” Lasheras said.
The medium-term solution is to speed up soldier training programs. The European Union aims to train 30,000 Ukrainian soldiers this year. UK, 20,000 more. This allows Ukraine to gain military strength and ensure its long-term survival: there will be a constant, predictable and upward flow of trained soldiers. Now is the time to move up the ranks: Focus on training officers and chains of command, as many have been discharged from the front.
What is considered a victory for Ukraine?
There are no confirmed figures, or even estimates, of soldiers lost in the conflict. Norwegian intelligence is talking about something 180,000 Russians and 100,000 Ukrainians were injured or killed. Other Western sources point to around 150,000 on both sides. It’s clear that it’s hard to come back without a massive camera. Something Ukraine has tried to avoid until now.
It is also not well known what the military goal to be achieved is. What does the Ukrainian victory look like? completely excluded the so-called “debellatio”, the end of the war after the complete destruction of the enemy state. Russia will still exist, able to pump large quantities of ammunition and recruit young soldiers (it tightened laws to prevent conscripts from fleeing or hiding from the country).
It also seems unlikely that Russia will be able to deport all the lands it has conquered – the provinces of Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia, in addition to the territory it already holds in the Crimea. Even if Kiev is successful, this does not guarantee that they will not cross the borders again after they have re-armed and recovered.
The best outcome for a counterattack is the achievement of surprise blows at various points forcing Russia to retreat or retreat. He even cut the line reaching the Crimea, leaving this annexed Peninsula isolated. This could force Moscow to negotiate to avoid greater evils.
The Ukrainian government has begun to lower expectations for a massive spring counterattack in the Western media and foreign ministries. Foreign Minister Dmitro Kuleba asked this week no one should think that this spring counterattack will be the final battle from war.
Another problem, perhaps the most serious, is added. According to leaked classified documents, the Ukrainian air defense is collapsing. One of the documents reads, “They may run out completely before May 23.” This would allow Russia gain air superiorityTo the surprise of many war analysts, a is something it has so far failed to achieve despite having a huge fleet of fighter jets. If Ukraine cannot protect its soil from air strikes, it cannot gather thousands or tens of thousands of men in one spot to launch a counterattack.
“It is very difficult to predict the outcome of the announced Ukrainian offensive,” admits Christian Villanueva, editor of Army Magazine. “On the one hand, there is a lack of reliable information about the actual capacities this country has produced based on the help (both in the form of material and training) from its partners. for the other, Russia has been on the defensive for some time strategically.”.
The offensive launched by the Russian Army since January can actually be considered strategically defensive, because this country is just trying to wear out the Ukrainians so that it cannot successfully launch its own offensive, Villanueva said. As this happens, Russia continues to establish a series of fixed defensive positions that will increase the cost of and slow down any Ukrainian attack.
As Russia digs deeper and strengthens itself hundreds of kilometers of front linesThe enormous number of soldiers required to carry out victorious raids is easy to understand. For example, the defensive value of an armored tower or fortress is measured by the number of soldiers required to defend it militarily or, conversely, by the number of soldiers required to successfully conquer it.
“Given that Ukraine has not received all the tools it will need to openly impose itself – allies are measuring every step – it seems more likely for the moment that the attack will have limited success,” Villanueva said.