Researchers at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (Higher School of Economics) concluded that in order to stabilize Russia’s population at the level of 146 million people, the country must attract from 390,000 to 1.1 million immigrants per year. Relating to to work Prepared by scientists from the Demography Institute. Published by AG Vishnevsky National Research University Higher School of Economics Valery Yumaguzin and Maria Vinnik by the journal New Economic Association.
“Depending on various fertility and mortality scenarios (to stabilize the population. – socialbites.ca), the annual level of compensatory migration growth in 2021-2023 should correspond to 460-1200 thousand people, which is 2-6 times the average suggested by the most realistic migration scenarios. 1.5-4.5 times higher than in solid or even high-migration scenarios,” the researchers say.
According to scientists, it is impossible to achieve the growth of Russia’s population without immigrants. Under optimal conditions, if there are 2.5 children per woman and the average life expectancy for men and women is up to 85.7 years and 90.5 years, respectively, the need for a steady flow of migrants will continue until 2036 and the population will decrease. It will continue until 2026.
The worst-case scenario assumes that the birth rate will fall to 1.4 children per woman (still higher than in Italy, Spain and Greece) and that life expectancy will fall to 74.9 and 83.6 years for men and women, respectively. In this scenario, population stability would require keeping substitution migration at the level of 1.1 million people per year, otherwise the country’s population would decrease by 100 million to reach 67.4 million by the end of the century.
At the beginning of 2023, the country’s population was 146.45 million people, 0.5 million less than at the beginning of 2022. The population of the country has been decreasing since 2018. As stated in the article, the most realistic scenario assumes that the population will decrease to 131 million in the next 50 years and then rise to 137.5 million by the end of the 21st century.
Previously reportedHe said in May that the government would present ideas to Putin to ensure the growth of Russia’s population.