The policies of the fight against Covid and the fight against inflation have tied the finances of most of the world and this situation will still return to normal at a slow pace. International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts financial deficit In 2023, global costs will rise slightly to reach an average of 5% of GDP facing governments. interest expense pressures and pressures to increase public policy, especially salaries and pensionsto catch inflation. to go past, As in Spain.
When updating your report “Financial Monitoring” The multilateral body, published by the IMF this Wednesday as part of its spring meeting, also indicates that public debt levels around the world will remain high. After historic increase in global public debt Almost 100% of GDP With the impact of the policies implemented against covid in 2020, the level has definitely dropped to around 92% in 2020. However, the fund predicts a deterioration that will increase the world public debt ratio to 100 percent once again in the coming years. % in 2028 (99.6%), interest payment.
The IMF report warns: UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Chinese The United States and other major economies must do more to address debt levels that will soar to near-record levels in five years, warning that this will limit nations’ ability to respond to future crises. “In the future, public debt will not only exceed the level predicted before the epidemic, but will also increase faster than before the epidemic,” said the Director of the IMF’s Financial Affairs Department. Victor Gaspar.
‘Financial Watch’ points to: USA and Chinaresponsible for nearly all of the estimated debt growth in the world’s two largest economies. The ratio of US debt to GDP is projected to increase from 121.7% in 2022 to 136.2% in 2028. Chinese It will rise from 77.1% of GDP in 2022 to 104.9% of GDP over the next five years as spending increases and the economy expands less than predicted before the pandemic. For eurozoneHowever, the weight of public debt over GDP is expected to decline from 90.9% in 2022 to 85.4% in 2028.
Spain, about 110%
especially for SpainThe IMF predicts that the public debt ratio, which reached 120.4% of GDP in 2020 and decreased to 112% in 2022, will remain at a high level of 109.3% in 2028.
The problem with such high public debt is, interest expense ultimately narrowing the states’ room for maneuver. In the case of Spain, the IMF estimates that the public deficit will remain at 4.5% of GDP in 2023, and although a valley of 3.5% is projected for 2024, the ratio is projected to settle to 4% by 2026. , 2027 and 2028. If there was no interest burden on public debt, primary open it would be 1.5%, not 4% of these three years.