HE rise interest rates will increase the mortgage effort of families by up to 40% of their average monthly income. risk rating agency Fitch Ratings foresees that. quota reviews mortgage variable rate Quickly raise this average indicator of the financial effort Spanish families take to pay for housing. According to Fitch Ratings, the debt-to-income ratio of floating rate loans will increase from the 30-35% range seen in 2022 to 40% by early 2024.
These calculations assume a 5% nominal fee increase, a 4% Euribor, and a 60% loan-to-home-value ratio (a percentage usually required for banks to issue mortgage loans).
Fitch notes that the credit risk associated with these higher interest rates, which has quadrupled in just one year, is mitigated by the “long-term” or lifetime margin of the outstanding mortgages, so the impact of the rate hike varies greatly depending on whether or not the credit risk involved. every debtor family. The impact of the rise in interest rates on clients and financial institutions is progressive as it depends on the general annual update that applies to most Spanish mortgage loans: in any given month, we believe it will take time for the full impact of higher interest rates to take place across all portfolios,” Fitch explains.
rating agency, housing prices will remain almost stagnant and this demand will remain low, especially in the case of new housing. In this sense, it overlaps with the majority of analyzes made by real estate professionals. Regarding the default rate (NPL ratio or non-performing loans), it will be approximately 3% and 3.75% for this year and next year. Regarding the risk of non-payment, Fitch acknowledges that at least half of these non-payments will have consequences: “We estimate that at least half of the total recovery of distressed positions is currently linked to friendly settlements,” the technicians explain. risk valuation agency.
Regarding rent, Fitch predicts households will “continue to suffer” despite government measures such as rent freezes. According to Fitch, the rental price per square meter has increased 60% since 2013.
Full salary for years
According to the study ‘Salaries and home purchase relationship in 2022’ based on the average salary data of the platform’s job offers Information Affairs and the average prices of second-hand houses for sale in the Real Estate Index photo houseThe average Catalan must dedicate their entire 8.6 years (103 months) gross salary to pay off the mortgage on the house they bought in 2022, compared to the 8.2 years (98 months) and 8 years (96 months) invested in 2021. Required in 2012, .
In 2022, the price of houses for sale in Catalonia closed with an annual increase of 3.9 percent, placing the price at 2,643 euros per square meter in December. That is, taking into account the average gross salary recorded by InfoJobs, which was €24,590 in 2022 (€2,049 gross monthly divided by 12 payments); Catalans have to devote 8.6 years (103 months) of their salary to the mortgage payment of an 80 square meter house.