HE International Monetary Fund It confirms that the Spanish economy will stall in 2023, although slightly improving its prospects for this year. In its new global outlook report released this Tuesday, as part of its spring meeting in Washington, the IMF forecasts that the Spanish economy, which grew by 5.5% in 2022, will grow by almost 1.5% in 2023. , a quarter improvement His most pessimistic forecast for the Spanish economy, which he launched in January, when he estimated only 1.1% for 2023, but at the same time the IMF cut its 2024 forecast by four-tenths to 2%.
New perspectives for spring point out that the Spanish economy is the fastest growing economy in the world. eurozone By 2023, at a rate that nearly doubles the eurozone average (0.8%) or the average of those assigned to it. France (0.7%) or Italy (0.7%). Much worse stops coming out GermanyWhile the new growth forecast of 1.5% for the Spanish economy in 2023 is in line with those projected by the Bank of Spain or Airef, it failed to reach the Government’s greater optimism, which predicts a 2.1% increase in GDP for this year.
The IMF report makes the following predictions: the inflation half In Spain, it will decrease from 8.3% in 2022 to 4.3% in 2023 and stabilize at 3.2% in 2024. According to the path described, unemployment rate From 12.9% of the active population in 2022, it is unlikely to be reduced to 12.6% and 12.4% in each of the next two years.
IMF warns most of the world economy will face a more difficult year in 2023 than 2022 One third of the world economy will go into recession due to the simultaneous slowdown of the world’s three largest economies, the USA, the European Union (EU) and China. To all these factors already perceived in January, the financial storm that erupted in the US in March following the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank was added.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that with the recent turmoil in the banking sector and the bankruptcy of the giant Credit Suisse, “the fog around the global economic outlook has intensified” and thus the positive signals illuminated at the beginning of 2023 have disappeared. went out “in the middle of a inflation stubbornly high and the latest turmoil in the financial industry”. global growth that is already anemic The forecast for this year (from 2.9% reported in January to 2.8%) and warns that the cut will be slightly higher if financial stress, which now appears to be under control, gets out of control, driven down by advanced economies.
For now, the basic forecast for the world economy, which assumes that recent financial tensions are under control, is world growth falls from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.8% in 2023 (one tenth less than predicted in January), before increasing slowly and settling at 3% until it completes the five-year period in 2024. “This is the lowest medium-term forecast in decades,” says the IMF, to underscore the extent of global economic weakness. Also, in a “reasonable” scenario with greater financial stress, world growth will cut in 2023 by 2025 (the weakest growth since the global recession) and 1% for advanced economies. “The bloodless outlook reflects the tight policies needed to curb inflation” [subida de tipos de interés]”The consequences of the recent worsening in financial conditions, the ongoing war in Ukraine and the growing geo-economic fragmentation,” the report states.