“Not to be taken lightly Russian nuclear threat. At least Spain shouldn’t do that; “They don’t have nuclear weapons of their own and are not at existential risk as a result of the war in Ukraine, but they do exist if the conflict escalates militarily into NATO territory,” he said. Jose Pardo de Santayana ‘Strategic Panorama in 2023. And such a serious warning about an “existential risk” for Spain in its annual main publication Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies (IEEE)under the Ministry of Defence.
Eldest think tank The country’s military released its overall forecast on March 23, just two days before the Kremlin further solidified its forecasts. atomic rhetoric. Saturday the 25th, Vladimir Putin personally announced on Russian television that an agreement was made with Belarus. deploy in their own territory tactical nuclear weapons (of limited power). He said that on July 1, a silo will be completed that will turn Belarus not only into a traditional bunker, but also into a nuclear slide around Kiev for Moscow.
Pardo de Santayana, chief inspector of the IEEE and one of the most expert staff officers in the Armed Forces in Russia, reiterates his warning when he predicted in Strategic Panorama: “An escalation of conflict expelling Russian troops from all Ukrainian territory It will expose Europe to a high nuclear risk.”
This is one of the threats and challenges facing Spain’s security, according to experts from the Defense Ministry watchtower. Warnings about Spain’s southern flank and Europe also come to the fore in the Strategic Panorama. So also from NATO.
atomic risk
It seems that in this present, a future that no one had bet on before 2014, a nuclear accident forecast is normalizing. This scenario jumps from the most technical NATO documents to the most accessible ones. Founder and former director of the Royal Institute of Elcano Emilio Lamo de Espinosa “Undoubtedly the most worrying thing at the moment in IEEE Panorama is broke the taboo surrounding nuclear war”.
The IEEE analysis was published almost as Finland joined NATO last week, and the resulting expectation of Russia’s response to the Alliance’s expansion of deployment, also announced by Putin, begins. Atomic weapons in the Baltic.
The IEEE view has relevance to other analyzes of the NATO orbit. Regarding the possibility or certainty of Russia resorting to nuclear weapons, he points out: John Chipman, ISS Director (London-based Institute for Strategic Studies) in the preface to the book Survey 2022 “The United States and many NATO countries seemed to remember Russia as an inaccessible giant. However, as those in the north and east perceive, a weakened but fiercely neo-fascist state.” The dangerous prediction that Russia will become a “nuclear pariah”, noted by the former minister, takes shape Claudio Aranzadi In a recent talk on the war in Ukraine, organized by the Supreme Center for National Defense Studies (CESEDEN).
At that round table, the director general of the IEEE, Francisco DacobaHe pointed to a disturbing incentive for Russia’s atomic lure: Ukraine, a year of aggression against Moscow Lost more men than in 20 years war in Afghanistan.
“Prepare for further proliferation of nuclear weapons. Buckle up for even greater global volatility going forward.” Atlantic CouncilA thinking and spreading presence parallel to NATO and based on North American mooring and chassis Global Forecast 2023Survey of 160 strategic analysts from around the world.
68% of those consulted predict this Iranian Get a nuclear weapon between now and 2033 and 41% will bet it will eventually happen. Saudi Arabia. The other two candidates who will be armed with the red button indicated in the poll are in this order: South Korea (19%) and Japan (14%).
maneuvers against maneuvers
Perhaps despite all this, the Atlantic Alliance will not cease to remember its nuclear profile. HE Annual Report of Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg– Released days before IEEE Panorama – as a deterrent NATO Fime Noon exercises. The most recent edition flew over Belgian skies last fall, with aircraft from 14 countries capable of launching American tactical nuclear weapons. Since 2013 there is confirmation of the existence of these weapons in Europe.
Last December, the Russian agency Sputnik announced that the Kremlin is calling for 2023. Zapad exercises (West), advanced, because it was four years in the past and they didn’t make contact until 2025. These maneuvers are rehearsing a confrontation with NATO… also with tactical nuclear bombs. Despite being the true Slavic enemy of the Loyal Noon, Grom (thunder), Annual exercises of the Russian strategic system. In 2022 the war games consisted of a so-called massive nuclear strike against the West in response to NATO’s previous offensive.
A Grom is scheduled for October this year. Meanwhile, ‘Mama Rossija’ (Mother Russia), a promotional video clip of the mercenary firm Wagner With a frenzied backdrop of the pop song ‘Cheburrashka’, he repeats a nuclear explosion on Russian television and social networks, repeatedly placing a warning sign to the West: “Don’t come here.”
hot south
on February 7 Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrovpassed by a Spanish military base. He had traveled to Bamako to meet with officials from Mali, the same country where Spanish soldiers trained the local army in the training mission promoted by the European Union.
Lavrov toured Mali, Mauritania and Sudan, tightening Russian knots with the Sahel states. French and American observers in Sudan, Gold mining overseen by Wagner mercenaries After deducting the commission of the mercenaries, it serves to finance Russia’s attack on Ukraine.
In the IEE’s Strategic Outlook for 2023, Pardo de Santayana says that this war “depleted significant military assets and massive amounts of expensive munitions whose stockpiles were emptied.” And he adds: “(to Ukraine) the contribution of the West, the European states’ Fight elsewhere.”
HE place The region that houses the main threat to Spain is the huge and uncontrolled strip of the Sahel. This is where Defense diplomacy has sought to draw the attention of NATO countries since before the Madrid summit, and the Defense Joint Chiefs of Staff has warned of greater risks in the short term. He said “financial cannot be abandoned” Daisy Robles In Congress in December and in Mali, the Minister of Defense appeared to be visiting troops on March 2, a month after Lavrov.
However, generalized ammo shortages may help to focus Sahel risk through facts in a less militarized way than so far. HE “The security approach that dominates the international agenda today” In the same Strategic Panorama, the retired military official means, “For Western Europe, the Maghreb and the Sahel are mostly perceived as synonymous with threat and risk.” Jesus A. Nunez VillaverdeHe is co-director of the Conflict and Humanitarian Action Research Institute and an analyst for this newspaper.
This security focus has led to the concept of “jihadist terrorism”. a threat that can be eliminated by military means.” says. There is no shortage of Western experts who think that trying to defeat the nine jihadist groups based on their proselytism is like trying to hold the wind in hopeless poverty, which roams the desert uncontrollably and causes 5,000 terrorist incidents a year. from the Sahelians.
Jihadist terrorism shares a place in Spain’s strategic attention with another threat confirmed to this newspaper by EUTM and active military sources linked to the Garsi-Sahel mission. In March, the deputy director was voiced in an analysis of the Atlantic Council. Alisa Pavia: “Moscow’s influence in Africa through the Wagner Group creates problems for southern European countries”.
Wagner does not only control gold, oil, manganese, chromium, bauxite and uranium in the region. He is also starting to make money from human smuggling, as confirmed by the same sources who previously told this newspaper how Wagner went. Bringing Syrian mercenaries to the region instead of the Russians It was brought to Ukraine.