Leaked secret documents of the Pentagon on the conflict in Ukraine speak of weaknesses in the air defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, writes. Washington Post.
“The ability to provide medium-range air defense for protection will be completely exhausted by May 23. According to forecasts, Ukraine will withstand two or three more waves of strikes, ”the statement said.
Let’s start with the terminology. There is no “medium-range air defense” in nature. Of course, there is a difference in the American and Russian military terminology, there are some difficulties in translation, but still it is more accurate to say short range, short range, medium range, long range (or long range). anti-aircraft missile systems (systems).
It would be better if “two or three waves of attack” were still called two or three large air and missile strikes.
Regarding the stockpiling of anti-aircraft guided missiles and combat units according to established norms, these questions relate to the so-called missile and technical support. You should not confuse missiles, which are usually made with us (and with them) all the time, with ammunition. Missiles – separately, ammunition – separately.
For example, with the start of the counter-offensive operation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which has been talked about a lot lately, the Ukrainian army is of course building up missiles and ammunition stocks in the amount of soldiers it needs for the operation. operation. However, to assume that this data reaches the media, you still need quite a bit of imagination. Also, announcing that stockpiles of anti-aircraft guided missiles for medium-range air defense systems will be depleted by May 23 (that’s right – exactly and specifically – by May 23).
And this is how the military writes in these documents about the planning of offensive operations. For example, to determine the total need of the troops for missiles and ammunition, it is necessary to take into account the possible losses (10-20%) of planned expenditures and the need to stock up at the end of the operation. guaranteeing the possibility of conducting combat operations and subsequent operations without an operational pause. Such stocks should as a rule be at least 75% of the content standards.
Let’s pay attention to the numbers – 10-20%, 75%. And in the leaks and text of the Washington Post, a very specific date is given – May 23. It quickly becomes clear that this is an obvious hack. Such accuracy, and even in the conduct of hostilities, by definition simply cannot happen.
A similar consideration applies to so-called confidential documents leaked to the Internet in the United States. In other words, in order to make a convincing forgery, the qualifications of the performers must be at the level of those who developed the original documents. But that doesn’t exactly follow what becomes the property of public documents.
At the same time, there are really problems with the anti-aircraft missile forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It should be noted that the transfer of Western-style anti-aircraft missile weapons to the Ukrainian armed forces has greatly accelerated and is far from fully meeting the demands of the Ukrainian side.
In order, as before Wrote “socialbites.ca”, the combat use and operation of Russian anti-aircraft missile weapons in the Ukrainian air defense units and formations is becoming more problematic and difficult every day.
Firstly, since the beginning of the conflict, the anti-aircraft missile forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have suffered significant losses. It is difficult to judge the combat and strength of the air defense air defense forces of Ukraine at the moment. It is impossible to say unequivocally how much and what was available even at the beginning of the conflict, and how many weapons remained in service today, the exclusive field of assumptions and hypotheses. In addition to combat losses, a large part of the Ukrainian air defense systems / air defense systems completely exhausted their allocated resources.
Secondly, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are also experiencing significant difficulties in the repair of decommissioned weapons. Necessary spare parts, tools and accessories are slowly running out.
Thirdly, and most importantly, stockpiles of anti-aircraft guided missiles are coming to an end (and there is no own production in Ukraine).
In such a situation, it is surprising that the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to achieve at least minimal results in repelling large missile and air attacks by the Aerospace Forces and Navy of the RF Armed Forces.
The situation with anti-aircraft missile weapons in Ukraine (first of all, this applies to short-range, medium-range and long-range air defense systems) can be characterized as follows – its end has not yet come in the west in sufficient quantities.
FIM-92 Stinger and Starstreak MANPADS at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot close all the problems associated with Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft systems, IRIS-T SLM air defense systems, NASAMS air defense systems, anti-aircraft missile protection. administrative and political centers, important military and government facilities, and troop groups. So far, the promised deliveries of Western-made medium-range air defense systems have been calculated in units, and in the foreseeable future they will not allow a qualitative strengthening of the air defense of Ukraine. The combat use of the Patriot PAC-3 air defense system in Ukraine has not yet been noted. And a battery of Patriot anti-aircraft missiles will in no way close the Ukrainian sky.
The Washington Post article points out that due to “out of stocks”, Ukrainian forces must first ensure their air defense systems work against warplanes and helicopters. At the same time, Kiev is asked not to spend this resource on “lesser threats like drones”. Even this suggestion, quite reasonable at first glance, can be safely attributed to nonsense. For example, if a UAV Geran 2 with a warhead weighing more than 40 kg is sent to the starting position of the air defense system, it turns out that it is not recommended to open fire? It remains only to explain this to the combat team in an understandable way.
The truth in all this lies in one thing – Western-made air defense systems were delivered to the Armed Forces of Ukraine at this stage, there are almost more missiles for them than two ammunition (for each air defense system, the very special meaning of BC) and there are really problems here .
Today, CNN reported that Kiev has changed some of its military plans due to the leak of classified Pentagon documents. It also refers to a source close to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Again, it all looks absolutely incredible. The fact is that strategic planning for the use of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is carried out by an extremely narrow circle of officers. These include the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valery Zaluzhny, several generals and officers from the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Ukraine Only they know exactly the plan of the upcoming offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Even the President of Ukraine does not know all the details.
The suggestion that a source close to Volodymyr Zelensky could inform a foreign TV channel about any changes in terms of offensive operation (and even timing) sounds absolutely fantastic.
Therefore, most likely, all these leaks and texts in the Western media are part of an operational camouflage and have only one purpose – to mislead the warring parties about their true intentions. And even that is highly unlikely. Document leaks in the United States generally affect nothing. And in them no private secrets were made public.