Although a so-called pre-campaign and campaign, with the initiation of official nominations, debates, pre-seasons and the struggle between candidates, United States of America lives in a permanent election cycle. The year 2024, for example, has opened up since Joe Biden took office due to Donald Trump’s resistance to non-results and the attack on the Capitol, and is already marked by other moments, such as the historic decision of the Supreme. The court last summer to remove the constitutional protection of abortion. However, nothing compares to this week’s accusation of impeachment by Trump, a former president and Republican nominee for next year’s presidential election. And both he and his declared and potential rivals in the internal struggle, but also Democrat Biden, are now acting on the tactics and strategies marked by this historic accusation.
Biden chose to keep general silence About the events of last week. White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre hides behind saying they do not comment on open cases. Michael Gerhardt, a constitutional law expert at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, told Newsweek: If Biden enters the conversation “that helps politicize him, And that would be in Trump’s favour.”
He’s clearly putting more consideration into Biden’s arguments, and here’s a vital point: 2024that you have a choice He has not yet announced that he will run for reelection. although all signs are that it will. The question is when and how blame can contribute. extend that moment into summer or even autumn, as reported by Axios this week. Because if Biden were to announce it in April, as Obama did in 2011, he might already start raising funds and cast the shadows of the lack of enthusiasm surrounding his potential re-election pursuit, but that’s not what the president and his strategists are doing. Consider the most important right now.
An exercise in contradictions
The President, who will travel to Ireland this month, has made his choice for now. using the image of an active presidentdedicated to management. A difficult time awaits the country, too, as the open battle over the Republicans’ refusal to raise the debt ceiling will reach its bloodiest and most dangerous phase in the summer. And also trying to convey something. chaos, the image of stability in the face of division And circus As seen again this week, it often surrounds Trump.
Engaging in the impeachment debate will not have a positive response for Biden and the Democrats. Silence will allow them to keep their distance unless Attorney Alvin Bragg does not convict Trump in the months leading up to 2024 anyway. And like nearly all observers, they believe the indictment reinforces Trump’s options to run as the Republican nominee today, but they also believe it. presidential elections would be much more difficult for the former president than the primaries.
” political arithmetic Trump won’t be elected in 2024 if he doesn’t vote for those who didn’t vote for him in 2020, and facing criminal charges and further investigations will make it very difficult for him to find these new voters. “The Washington Post,” Geoff Garing, a Democrat poll expert, summed up. And even Republican strategist Karl Rove in a column in “The Wall Street Journal” pointed to Trump’s hard math for polls. independent.
In one of these surveys, only 31% in the economy and only 27% in border management approve of Biden, while in another (in addition to 16% of Republicans), 40% are satisfied with Biden being charged. On a CNN, that rate rose to 60%. And they Bad numbers for TrumpIt received 48% of the independent vote in 2016 and fell to 41% in this group in 2020. “Paying the silence money is not a winning issue,” Rove said.
Moreover, his accusation came the same day. two progressive victories Demonstrating Democratic potential at the polls. One was a choice Democrat as mayor in ChicagoSomeone Major cities vilified by Trump and Republicans For the supposed negative impact of democratic policies. Another, someone’s victory Progressive justice that shook the balance of the Supreme Court in Wisconsin to the left, by recalling that setbacks in rights such as abortion and Democratic progress in hinge states were rejected at the polls.
Strengthened in the primaries
But for now, the path to Trump’s presidential candidacy has been cleared. So far, he’s managed to turn what was a political death sentence to countless people into an asset. While weakened against potential rivals like Ron DeSantis, he became the undisputed leader. And as Republican strategist Alex Conant told Bloomberg, “This indictment is Trump’s will be the center of history in the near future”, something that always happens played in your favor and which he now does openly in the primary fight.
In addition to the well-known injections millions of dollars (10 in just four days), polls continue to show his support for the impeachment’s candidacy. This main competitorsso as not to alienate their soles like DeSantis boxed up untenable for them, attacking his accusation like Trump political persecution However afraid to attack him personally. and they repeat errors What did Trump’s opponents do? 2015 and 2016While everyone waits for a moment for him to come under the weight of this or that new accusation, or for someone else to attack him. In the graphic image used in The Atlantic magazine by Matt Mackowiak, a Republican advisor and party chairman in the state of Texas, “everybody wants to be the last person to eat the crocodile”.
It is not yet clear whether Trump’s “momentum” is maintained. In his ‘Journal’ article, Rove recalled that “those that rise fast tend to fall quickly.” But Trump is breaking trends.
The first Republican primary debates will arrive in August. First dates in Iowa and New Hampshire won’t be until January or February. And for now, Trump has the advantage. “Each time the party had to go a different direction, it got closer and closer to Trump’s path,” Stuart Stevens, chief strategist of Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign, told “The Atlantic” newspaper. , Republican Party adviser John Thomas used another subversive image. “is-is almost like an abusive relationshipsaid. “Diverse segments of MAGA (Make America Great Again) voters