Ukraine will be able to seize Crimea in five to seven months, after which it will tear down the Crimean bridge and try to eliminate everything Russian there. So says Mikhail Podolyak. The question arises – are such statements of the adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine connected with the upcoming strategic counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which has been talked about so much lately?
The duration of the emergency task during the offensive operation of the operational-strategic formation is 7-10 days. further – 8-10 days. The next task is planned in the most detailed way. The next is mostly approximate and depends on the implementation of the next. The total duration of the operation is usually about 20 days.
By this time, stocks of pre-prepared material resources – ammunition, fuel and food – are often depleted. An important factor is the increased fatigue of personnel during operation. From military operational experience it is well known that soldiers and commanders cannot withstand intense offensive operations for more than 20 days. In addition, sanitary and irreparable personnel losses, weapons and equipment losses will increase day by day.
The testimony of the adviser of the head of the Presidential office of Ukraine, Mykhailo Podolyak, is in no way consistent with these provisional standards. Therefore, the words of the Ukrainian politician and the upcoming plans of counterattacks are in no way connected. Seven months already is this year’s winter. In such a case, we can only talk about periods of armed struggle, not the duration of certain operations.
There is another important detail – there is no doubt that the adviser to the head of the Presidential office of Ukraine is not allowed to carry out operational-strategic planning in the Armed Forces of Ukraine (he is not allowed to do this position) . Precisely planning is the fate of the chief of staff Valery Zaluzhny, two or three officers-operators. Therefore, the words of Mikhail Podolyak should be attributed purely to political statements.
As for the main goal of the upcoming counter-offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, apparently, it consists of the following – the defeat of Russian army groups, mastering the strategic initiative, capturing important areas and creating the conditions for the organization of subsequent offensive operations.
How long can the operation take approximately? Wrote “socialbites.ca”.
As for the Crimea itself, the peninsula occupies an important place in the operational documents of the upcoming counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which was developed at the headquarters of General Valery Zaluzhny. Most likely, in the case of the successful development of the offensive operation, units and formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are expected to reach the administrative borders of the peninsula, and the Ukrainian plans are unlikely to go further at the moment.
As for the plan to put the enemy (that is, the Russian army) into operation with fire, Ukrainian officer-operators for a long time designated objects and groups of Russian troops in the Crimea (including the Black Sea Fleet) as targets for destruction.
There is every reason to believe that the Armed Forces of Ukraine has for a long time completed the deployment of available weapons for all possible operational tasks (up to each high-precision guided active rocket 155 mm M982 Excalibur projectile, which will go into action, if the access limits do not allow).
A special place in terms of the destruction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by fire definitely occupies the Crimean bridge. Attempts to attack will be made in the first hour of fire preparations for the offensive of the Ukrainian army.
Most likely, the operational-tactical missile systems “Sapsan” (aka “Grom-2”), which are in the missile forces and artillery equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, will take part in solving this problem. Sapsan OTRK launcher can carry two single-stage ballistic missiles. Head weight up to 480 kg. Sapsan’s firing range is up to 500 km, which makes it possible to try to hit the Crimean bridge over its entire length.
This infrastructure facility is one of the most important targets for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. From the Crimean bridge, the supply of Russian troops in the Crimea and groups of the RF Armed Forces on the territory of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions is carried out. It is not known how many combat-ready launchers of Sapsan OTRK are currently at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
There is no doubt that the ships of the Black Sea Fleet anchored in the Sevastopol bays will also be subject to priority attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. For these purposes, unmanned radio-controlled boats and anti-ship missiles can be used. In this case, the task will be twofold – to hit the combat units of the Black Sea Fleet and to prevent retaliatory attacks on the Armed Forces of Ukraine with sea-based cruise missiles.
In addition, the airfields of the Aerospace Forces stationed on the territory of Crimea certainly occupy a special place in terms of fire damage of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. If they fail, air support to the troops defending the Zaporozhye and Kherson directions will be significantly reduced.
Most likely, the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will begin on April 20. By this time, the soil in the southern regions of Ukraine will dry out and finally the good weather will begin.