donald trump He was indicted by a New York grand jury, the first ex-president in history. United States of America who faces criminal charges. This lack of precedent Following this historic accusation now puts the country in unknown territory, and while all its political and judicial consequences will be determined as the legal process progresses, there are already some predictable consequences.
1. Processing
The first step after the indictment, if the usual procedures in New York are followed, is a contact between the prosecution, headed by Democrat Alvin Bragg, and Trump’s lawyers. coordinate your delivery He could resist the authorities, which would force him to be arrested (and if FloridaI would force it has been returned from that state), but it was implied from the Trump camp that he would not do so and would surrender voluntarily.
While in custody, Trump processed and filedwith fingerprints and photos. It is unclear whether he will be handcuffed to appear before a judge at the case’s first investigative hearing. free of charge to be non-violent crime case.
2. Hearing
Criminal cases take average in New York more than a year As Karen Friedman Agnifilo, who previously worked for the Manhattan district attorney’s office and is now leading the process against Trump, told Reuters from the moment the indictment was revealed until the trial began.
There is no guarantee that the case will reach court. Trump, throughout his long history of conflict with the law, aggressive counterattacks and delaying tactics. You can try to get the charges dropped by suggesting it’s a “”.Witch hunt” And “politically motivated“It says something about all the open investigations and lawsuits that have been brought against him since he came to the White House.
There are other legal ways as well. resources You can continue with your defense. To raise the blame document forgery Tried to conceal the payment to Stormy Daniels, the prosecution assured that the fraud was fabricated to hide another crime: specifically a violation of campaign laws. But such a legal merger has no precedent, and many legal analysts believe Trump’s defense will use this new approach to challenge the indictment.
Also, Trump’s lawyers may try to hide behind the fact that the alleged crime was committed. envisaged. New York state law allows these periods to be extended if the defendant has spent time out of state within the five-year limit, but Trump’s defense may attempt to argue that the presidency should not be considered normal absences.
If a lawsuit is filed despite appeals and legal battles, it could catch Trump in the middle. 2024 campaign even later presidential election. And there is no precedent for how justice could work if Trump were his party’s nominee and winner. What is certain is that even if he was president, he could not pardon himself for state charges (his presidential power is limited to federal cases).
Trump may also add indictments in more open cases against him. He is the subject of two federal criminal investigations: storm of the capital and for him processing of graded material After leaving the White House and possible block Later. He is also facing state criminal investigation for possible interference in the state’s elections. Georgiaanother civilian in New York for him business applications and a civil lawsuit also filed in New York by a woman who accuses him. broken in the 90s.
3. Political situation
Trump, who has been officially a candidate for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination since November, may continue in this race. And the consensus among analysts is that attributing benefits you politically in the short runbut it represents more risk than benefit together.
Trump has been refocusing attention for more than a week, something that has always been oxygen to him. Media coverage equals millions of dollars free promotion. He also used the possibility of being charged for shooting himself. Donation, as well as to mobilize his followers, which he once again infused with energy. As always, she managed to convey the message that the cases against her, even if they were as personal as Stormy Daniels’s, are an atrocity to her followers.
Since that time It was made up that he was going to be arrested last week.Trump showed his power in the Republican Party, which came into question in part after the attack on the Capitol Building and the bad Republican results in the November congressional elections, partly through his determination to continue to defend the great state. a lie no selection trick Numerous conservative leaders came to his defense in the 2020 presidential election, and the three Republicans who now chair committees in the House of Representatives under his control have engaged their legislative powers to try to control the prosecution.
The lawsuit also required a disclosure. potential primary competitors Trump, especially the governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis; and former vice president, Mike Pence. In order not to lose the support of the most loyal base to Trump, both criticized prosecutor Bragg. But both will benefit from a weakened Trump. And DeSantis, widely seen as his biggest rival, launched a far from sneaky attack using his initial revelations, assuring that he “personally knew nothing about paying a porn star to keep quiet about some sort of alleged affair.” “.
Nate Cohn, chief political analyst at The New York Times, is one of those who has identified potential short-term political benefits, but also believes Trump faces more risk than benefit, including that impeachment would encourage more moderate Republican voters to seek out. alternative to Trump. This is an idea expressed by Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist. “Legal escalation will be a major blow in a general election where you need to broaden your support, but any event that polarizes the primaries for or against Trump only serves to strengthen your grassroots support,” he said. times’.
4. Social status
There is uncertainty about social response Trump could be impeached. The idea that this is a political persecution is entrenched among their followers, but it is not known how they will react.
In right-wing forums and online communities, there is talk of Trump responding to multiple calls. protests and language similar to that before the attack on the Capitol on January 6 was identified from both the former president and his most radical followers. But the prosecution of hundreds of people involved in this uprising has also prompted us to be cautious, with dozens already convicted and imprisoned.
Dan Bognino, a right-wing star, urged viewers to protest “peacefully” in a statement to Fox News. “People on the left want nothing more than to find an excuse to put you in jail too,” he told them. And on the far right news site Gateway Specialist an editorial called for a national strike. “No violence, no civil war. We cannot risk another January 6 where we are portrayed as violent terrorists or insurgents.”