Cristina Herrero, head of AIReF, presented an opinion this Friday that she aims to shed light on the long-term sustainability of public administrations because “the sooner we act, the smaller the size arrangement”.
These calculations are based on a baseline scenario that the Spanish population will reach. 50.3 million in 2050 and 52.1 million in 2070 Thanks to the driving force of migration, the economy will grow at an average of 1.3% per year without fiscal rules. Herrero, according to these predictions -“they are not guesses“, he insisted – the public deficit will grow from 2026 until it reaches a maximum of 8.1% of GDP in 2055, and then falls to 7% by 2070.
This increase in latency increased spending pensionshealth, education and long-term care It is related to aging as well as the cost of increasing debt, which will reach 6.9% of GDP in 2070.
Herrero argued that it is advisable to conduct a global analysis of the sustainability of public finances, as it focuses on “no watertight compartments” for pensions or autonomous communities and a problem that “will emerge strongly from the decade” such as aging. thirties”.