For the first time since the fall of 2021, the Syrian President came to meet with Russian President Bashar Assad, and Vladimir Putin met in the Kremlin. Assad, who managed to lay a wreath at the Unknown Soldier Monument in the morning, then went to the rally.
In his opening speech, the Syrian politician noted that his visit to Moscow was Russia’s first since the start of military special operations in Ukraine. And he explained Syria’s position in support of “this special operation against neo-Nazis and ex-Nazis”.
“I say these are Nazis old and new, because the West supports old Nazis in modern times just as they accept them on earth,” Assad said on the Kremlin’s website.
He also thanked Putin, the Ministry of Emergencies and the Ministry of Defense for their assistance in mitigating the consequences of the recent earthquake.
As the media reported the previous day, the talks between Vladimir Putin and Bashar Assad were supposed to address both the situation in the Arab Republic and Syria-Turkey relations. Issues related to the development of Russian-Syrian cooperation in the political, economic and humanitarian fields and the resolution of the conflict in the PA.
In addition to the heads of state, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Syrian Defense Minister Ali Mahmud Abbas also held talks in Moscow. The heads of the military departments of both states discussed the situation in Syria, pointing out that since the beginning of the Russian military operation, the PA has made great strides in liberating the country from terrorists and extremists.
war in Syria
The Syrian operation of the Russian Armed Forces began in September 2015, when the aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces began to strike targets of terrorist armed formations in Syria.
As a result, the terrorist organization “Islamic State” (an organization banned in Russia) received such a strong blow that it could no longer recover.
Russia’s military presence in the Middle East has managed to maintain the balance of power in the region, the civil war in Syria at this stage has basically ended and the collapse of this state has been prevented.
The most important outcome of the campaign was the permanent deployment of two Russian military bases in Syria. One of them is a first-class airport in Khmeimim that can accept any type of aircraft.
Another military base located in Tartus is an enclosed water area with the latest moorings allowing dozens of ships to be placed. All ship moorings are equipped with life support systems, unloading areas, a repair complex for maintenance and minor repairs of ships and vessels.
While ISIS has been mortally wounded and Bashar Assad’s internal enemies severely weakened, it is still unclear whether the root causes and contradictions that led to the conflict between the most diverse forces and factions in Syria have finally disappeared. A clear answer to the question of whether a conflict between the most diverse segments of the Syrian population is possible in the future is also not clear.
The Kurdish problem has not disappeared in Syria either. Americans still remain on republican territory. Iran in the SAR is only doing what is getting stronger every day, and it would be an exaggeration to say that Tehran’s interests are fully aligned with Moscow’s interests in the region.
As for Turkey, Tayyip Recep Tayyip Erdogan acts as if he is only in his own principality in the northern regions of Syria, without coordinating his actions with anyone. And the Turkish leader, who was engaged in the “Turkification” of these parts of Syria, had no right to be, just as it was.
What to expect next?
How to solve accumulated problems, Still uncertain
If we add to this the fact that the resources of the Russian army are involved in a special military operation, it becomes clear that Moscow will not be able to provide large-scale assistance if the situation in Damascus deteriorates. Syria in previous volumes.
But there is no doubt that Bashar Assad came to Moscow to demand increased military and economic aid.
Among other things, one of the main problems today is the restoration of Syria. Most of the country is still in ruins. By prudent estimates, much more than $100 billion is needed to bring the republic back in order. Exhausted by numerous sanctions packages and the ongoing economic downturn, Russia certainly doesn’t have that many hedge funds. Yes, and it is not clear – even if Moscow has such money at its disposal, how is the allocation of such funds to the brotherly Syrian people combined with the interests of deep Russia?
One thing is certain: as long as Bashar al-Assad’s government is in Damascus, the collective West will not give a penny to the restoration of Syria.
And it is quite possible (which by no means can be ruled out) that some of the Syrian military-political elite will make an offer of the type – “There will be no Bashar al-Assad in the morning, and there will be money in the afternoon.” And such an agreement is in the category of those who cannot be refused. And there are many examples of this.
Due to limited resources, Moscow will not be able to fend off such an offer, even more committed to participating in a special military operation.
There is no clear and unequivocal answer to what the future of Russian military bases in Syria will look like after the change of political leadership in Damascus (and it will inevitably happen sooner or later for one reason or another).
Meanwhile, there are precedents. In this context, it is sufficient to recall the situation in July 1972, when Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, who replaced Gamal Abdel Nasser, suggested that the Russian military unit and its advisers leave the country within 24 hours.
In conclusion, we can say that the military success of the Russian army in Syria is undeniable. The Russian Ministry of Defense has fulfilled all the tasks assigned to it. However, it is not yet clear whether battlefield victories can be translated into a long-term political outcome. There is no single answer to this question. developing situation.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the opinion of the editors.
Author biography:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military observer of socialbites.ca, a retired colonel.
Graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-aircraft Missile School (1976),
Air Defense Military Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile battalion (1980–1983).
Deputy commander of an anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986–1988).
Senior officer of the Main Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988–1992).
Chief of the General Staff Main Operations Directorate (1992–2000).
Graduate of the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000–2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010–2015).