The grain harvest forecast for North Africa points to decreased productivity due to the drought that has plagued the region in recent weeks. High temperatures and no rain According to the latest report in English by the Joint Research Center of the European Union (JRC), this has caused a delay in grain production in several regions of Morocco, a wide belt that runs through Algeria and the northeastern and central region of Tunisia. . We’ll see how this bad harvest from drought will have a destabilizing effect in a region that is already suffering from high prices of basic food due to inflation and the high cost of grain from Ukraine. In addition to crops, drought will affect water availability for the local population and ultimately energy supply and production.
“How it translates into economic impact depends on many factors, but it is certain that it directly affects agriculture and there is a loss of production,” the newspaper says. Italian researcher Andrea Toreti, the author of a report for the European Commission that raises the alarm about the adverse weather event. He gives an example from the drought that swept through Southern Europe in 2018. “Then there were compensatory mechanisms that mitigated the effect.” The Maghreb is a much poorer region in terms of relationships and this can aggravate the impact.
The blow of the drought extends beyond the Maghreb, The earthquake-hit region of Turkey and Syria Killing more than 50,000 people at the end of February. This will only exacerbate the harmful effects on the displaced and refugee population.
Most of the impact on agriculture is expected this summer. Until the end of February, the winter was warmer and drier in many parts of the Mediterranean than in other years. This includes parts of the Maghreb and Spain. This negatively affects soil moisture and the flow of rivers. critical values in Tunisia, Algeria and all of Turkey., says the report. The harvest in Morocco was “significantly below average for nearly all wheat and barley plantations”. Specifically, a decrease of -24% to -15% for wheat and -30% to -10% for barley is estimated, compared to the average of the last five years.
The Algerian government has already announced that it will take measures to reduce water consumption and waste. Fear in Morocco, lack of precipitation further reduce water reserves in the coming months. In Turkey, the situation is already described as “severe drought” and it is not known how irrigation will be provided in summer. Some reservoirs were also damaged by the earthquake.
Data obtained by Copernicus
JRC provides real-time information through the Global Drought Observatory (GMO) and Europe (EDO). “We use satellite data, hydrological models and meteorological forecasts, among others, in the Copernican system,” explains Toreti. With this information, they were able to draw maps that marked areas that needed special attention as the drought was more severe. They were already focused on that area since it came from a heatwave. It’s mid-December when the crop forecast worsens.
After an extreme 2022 in temperatures, the Mediterranean region is once again threatened by drought. In Spain, the State Meteorological Service predicted this Friday that the spring will be warm after a mild winter ending in a drought.
But the biggest concern, according to the map, is in the Southern Mediterranean. Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) signals alarm in almost all Maghreb regions. It is red in almost the entire region, with the exception of the Ceuta region and the Tetouan region of Morocco. Red is the area of the autonomous city of Melilla and the neighboring province of Nador.
The authors of the report, “most important” the task of estimating the potential impact to prepare relief and risk reduction strategies. “Immediate measures should be taken to reduce the impact of drought on soil, crops and water availability.” The next few weeks will be very important, especially if hot conditions continue in the Mediterranean region and Europe and an extreme summer like 2022 is experienced.
heat records
The world is breaking heat records due to Climate Change and Scientists predict things will get worse. It’s not always drought: there will be more heatwaves, but also more storms and severe flooding.
guess this Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)At the meeting held in Interlaken (Switzerland), .
In this synthesis of the sixth cycle of scientific considerations, the IPCC insists that the purpose of the world’s nations is to limit the increase in manpower. 1.5 °C temperature risea, To avoid the most devastating effects of Climate Change. They say it’s about protecting the world from a serious climate crisis, “with unprecedented changes in all aspects of society.”
From now until 2030 greenhouse gases They should decrease by 43% from 2019 levels, or even 84% by 2050, but they continue to increase and exceeding 1.5ºC, albeit temporarily, is inevitable.
At 1.5 °C, 14% of terrestrial species will face extinction. 99% of coral reefs in temperate waters at +2 °C –home to a quarter of marine life —– According to the reading of the news run by the EFE news agency, they will suffocate and aquaculture (molluscs, fish farms …) will also suffer the consequences.
The IPCC 2022 report on the impact of warming has been described by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres as an “atlas of human suffering”.
3.3 to 3.6 billion people are “very vulnerable” to these effects, especially in the face of heat waves, drought, and mosquitoes, vectors of disease transmission. By 2050, many coastal megacities and small island states will experience exceptional weather disasters once a year.