Meteorologists predict that climate change will cause planes to hit twice as much turbulence over the next 30 years, and flights will become more expensive. It has been reported business insider.
In a storm, pilots can detect signs of oncoming turbulence before the plane begins to shake. This gives them time to light the “fasten their seat belts” sign and ask passengers to take their seats. But sometimes turbulence has no obvious cause and can occur even in clear skies.
The main cause of turbulence in clear weather is considered to be wind shear, that is, a sudden change in wind speed and direction. Climate change has caused a 15% increase in wind shear frequency since 1979.
As meteorologist Isabelle Smith of the University of Reading explains, increased greenhouse gas emissions are trapping heat in the troposphere, the layer of the atmosphere closest to the Earth’s surface. This increases the temperature gradient between it and the stratosphere, causing an unsteady wind flow.
Meteorologists predict that by 2050 the prevalence of severe outdoor turbulence will double. The scientists noted that strong turbulence occurs in only one tenth of the total atmosphere, so absolute numbers will remain low.
Airlines flying over the Atlantic will have to use longer routes to avoid turbulence. This will keep flight safety at the same level, but will make flights more expensive and increase greenhouse gas emissions due to increased fuel consumption. Scientists hope that the development of new technologies will make it easier to detect outdoor turbulence in the coming years.