The area of land suitable for growing coffee could shrink significantly in the coming years. This has been reported by the Australian scientific association CSIRO.
“Since 1980, global coffee production has been exposed to an increasing risk of crop shortages that could affect several regions at once. Coffee trees are very sensitive to climate change because the average annual temperature and rainfall for their cultivation must not go beyond certain ranges,” said Doug Richardson, head of the business.
To find out, the authors created statistical model on multiple datasets. Since 1980, regions suitable for coffee production have been marked on the world map and information has been given about coffee production by years. Weather reports for the same period were also added to these data. Finally, scientists identified 12 types of climate hazards based on data from the literature, such as exceeding the maximum daily temperature that coffee plants can withstand.
Among other things, it turned out that in line with the global warming trend, the most common type of danger is changing from extremely cold to extremely hot conditions. At the same time, adverse climatic factors, which can manifest themselves simultaneously in several regions, are especially dangerous.
This suggests that coffee production may face persistent systemic shocks as a result of suboptimal growing conditions.
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