After growing 5.5% in 2022, the Spanish economy will lie dead in 2023 and will barely grow by 1.3% according to the latest forecasts revised upwards by the US. Savings Banks Foundation (Funcas). In the report ‘Economic projections 2023 for autonomous communities’ published by Funcas this Monday, the forecasts are as follows: Balearic Islands (3.3%) and the Canary Islands (2.2%) will lead growth this year and Catalonia, Madrid, Navarra and the Basque Countrylike other regions that will grow slightly above average (1.4%).
The Funcas research service concludes that by the end of 2023, both the Spanish economy as a whole and a total of 10 autonomous communities individually will have reached the pre-pandemic level of 2019 after the intense recession in 2020. Castilla-La Mancha, Navarra, Murcia, Aragon and Galicia In 2022, they have already exceeded that bar. Catalonia, Extremadura, Castilla y León, Cantabria, Asturias, Balearic and Canary Islands According to Funcas estimates, they will still have to wait another year to reach 2019 levels in 2024. Especially by the end of 2023, Funcas predicts that the Catalan economy will be 0.9 points below its pre-pandemic level. According to the calculations of Funcas, it will be 0.5 points above the 2019 level in Madrid.
The report presented by the managing director of Funcas in Vigo this Monday, carlos ocanaand the organization’s Director of Economic Affairs and Statistics, Raymond Torres He points out that the Balearic and Canary Islands were the fastest growing communities with 12% and 10% respectively last year. Fiscal year 2022 has been a “rebound year”, with differences that become “significant” and “relevant” to what Funcas general manager describes as “extremely high” and regionally distributed growth. productive nature of each community.” Castile and Leon (3.1%), Cantabrian (3.9%) or Estremadura (4%). Inside CataloniaGDP grew by 5.4%, one-tenth below the state average of 5.5%.
Tourism and European funds
“A slowdown in all autonomous communities is projected for 2023,” the report says. Lowering expectations is, first and foremost, related to poor household consumption. raised inflation and rising prices interest rates. “In this scenario, the main engine of growth will come from the expected stimulus from European funds as well as the full normalization of tourism activity.”
Therefore, the attractiveness of tourism should be particularly favorable for: Balearic and Canary Islandsyes, to a lesser extent, because Andalusia and Galicia. Concerning the impact of European funds, Funcas concludes that those with the greatest assets of the capital goods industry and improved services to companies are those that can benefit most: Catalonia, Madrid, Navarra and the Basque Country. The Funcas report clarifies that “the difference is not due to the regional distribution of European funds, a process that maintains a relative balance between communities, but to the potential use of these stimuli by the business fabric of different regions.” It is also noted that there are communities such as Castilla y Leon and the Comunitat Valencia could benefit from the recovery of the automobile industry.
Unemployment rate
The unemployment rate will continue to fall in all autonomous communities, but Madrid and Navarra will remain above pre-pandemic levels. On average, the unemployment rate is expected to rise from 12.9% of the active population in 2022 to 12.3% in 2023. Basque Country (7.9%), Balearic Islands (8.9%) and Navarre (8.9%), followed by the following communities: Aragon and La Rioja (both with 9.2% expected rate) and Catalonia, Castilla y Leon and Cantabria (9.3%). For Madrid An unemployment rate of 11% is predicted for 2023.