A team of scientists from various institutions, including the Andalusian Institute for Astrophysics (IAA), found evidence for years to come. The warming the planet is experiencing could cause a significant increase in their number. My godwhich could cause more forest fires In many parts of the world, including the Iberian Peninsula. The results of the research were published in the journal Nature Communication.
Working globally, lightning strikes could increase by 40% (about 10% per degree rise in temperature) before the end of this century. It has also been shown that the risk of forest fires caused by lightning will increase worldwide as a result of changing weather conditions.
The study began with an analysis of satellite images of wildfires that occurred in the United States between 1992 and 2018. By examining the types of lightning that occurred and comparing them to wildfires that occurred, the team found: It is very common for forest fires to start due to lightning.. In fact, they found that about 90% of the fires they observed started this way.
The researchers then looked at the rate of lightning strikes recorded over time. Computer simulations showed a higher frequency as the atmosphere warmed up. And climate models have shown that such discharges can rise from three lightning bolts per second to four per second worldwide.
The team also looked at which parts of the world are most likely to experience the most lightning strikes as the planet warms. They found that parts of South America, Southeast Asia, Australia and Africa are particularly at risk. But they discovered that the most significant increase will be in North America. Instead, the models showed that polar regions are more likely to see fewer wildfires, because precipitation there is likely to increase, which will turn more snowfall into water precipitation due to global warming.
More lightning and more fire in the Spanish Levante
And on the Iberian Peninsula? The maps accompanying the study show thate Spain’s Mediterranean slope will also be subject to an increase in the number of lightning strikes, increasing the risk of forest fires.
“Both lightning and direct current lightning (very long discharges) They will be more common on the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula because the air currents will be stronger in storms in this area.”, explains the study’s principal author, Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón of the IAA, to this paper.
“We’ve also seen an increase in temperature and increased probability. dry storms in this part of the peninsula increases the likelihood that lightning will cause a fire. Dry storms are storms where high temperatures near the ground allow raindrops to dry before they reach the surface, thus increasing the likelihood that lightning can cause and spread fires. We were unable to get conclusive results in other parts of the peninsula,” he adds.
Strictly speaking, a novelty of the study is that, for the first time, there is a possible variation in the number. lightning with direct currentIt is a special type of lightning characterized by a very long duration (tens or hundreds of milliseconds) discharge, thus providing more energy to the vegetation and increasing the probability of fire. Only about 10% of all lightning strikes are direct current lightning strikes.
New stationary satellite ‘Meteosat Third Generation’Launched by Europe in December 2022, it will soon begin generating data. One of the innovations on board is an optical instrument capable of observing, for the first time and continuously, the occurrence and possible continuous discharge of lightning in Europe and Africa.
“Undoubtedly, the future data this tool will provide us and the use of regional models will help us better predict the future change in lightning fire risk in the Iberian Peninsula,” says Pérez-Invernón.
Reference work: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-36500-5
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