Trump or DeSantis: The Republicans’ dilemma for 2024

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Donald Trump not in his third attack White Houseneither the candidate who came to the stage of the Republic in 2015 and took it under his control, nor the president who wants to be re-elected in 2020, even if unsuccessfully. third nominationAnnounced in November, works to faint. For a long time, and especially after the November legislative resolutions, cracks what was his iron until a long time ago control between game, with donor leaks or evangelical leaders. And 76 years He ignites the same conversations and debates about age as eighty-year-old Joe Biden in the Democratic field.

Ron DeSantis, Governor related to FloridaHe has not officially announced that he will seek the Republican Party nomination until 2024, but the 44-year-old politician is seen and treated as a party. de facto candidate He expects him to take the expected step at any moment after the current term ends in Tallahasee in May. Not like any candidate, but like favorite. The attention and media coverage it has generated, both for its actions in the executive and for the release of its report this week. second book ‘Courage to be free’it shows no parallels in this election cycle that is already going on.

pulling major donors and interest groups who is leaving trump and this featured in polls In a comparable moment, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Rudy Giuliani were on a level that George Bush had before Ted Kennedy (nearly scooping President Jimmy Carter’s nomination) and Ronald Reagan. However, so far DeSantis did not pass any tests at the national level To confirm whether the hype and fuss is justified.

No direct duel

The direct duel between the two is, for the moment, practically nil. DeSantisHE avoid getting muddyand taking into account the former president’s track record, Trump is quite happy with his situation (although he has already branded his potential rival with a pseudonym) “Ron DeSanturron”Meatball Ron” and even suggested that he engaged in inappropriate behavior with high school girls when he was a teacher in his youth). But their confrontation had long been warlike. And it’s a provocative fight visible and precise distinctions between education, donors and basesfaction performing this weekend Clearly.

embers star speaker this saturday after three days Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), a meeting There wasn’t a time in 2016 when the traditional conservative movement still resisted his candidacy but stood at their feet from the following year and didn’t stop being there. A date this year punctuated by accusations that his manager, Matt Schlapp, had touched a campaign employee undesirably.

It also lost some of its shine, some Featured sponsors withdrawn it has even been published that some events are offered at discounted prices to be complete. And although the guest list includes the best the most extreme conservatism And radicalrelated to Steve Bannon for Congressman Marjorie Taylor Greene and until former president of brazil Jair Bolsonaro, discontinuityincluding those Kevin McCarthy and Mitch McConnellParty leaders in Congress or leaders of other potential presidential candidates, DeSantis former Vice President Mike Pence, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott and South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem and New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu.

DeSantis and all other potential Trump rivals instead closed door retreat with the donors Florida HE Growth Club, a powerful and effective anti-tax and conservative organization like a net Koch brothersdecided it was time “Turn the page” He turns to the governor of Florida, for whom they have allocated two million dollars for his latest campaign regarding Trump. And lonely Nikki Haley, The ex-governor of South Carolina and the UN ambassador who formalized Trump’s 2024 candidacy will join the duo, along with biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who announced he would run but was not even mentioned in the polls. quotes.

overlapping soles

DeSantis lays the groundwork for Trump And although the former president is still ahead in most of these polls, he knows that his main competitor is himself. He reacted with messages on his social network. attacks From Club for Growth to those who felt he was abandoning her in favor of the governor of Florida (which he branded as “the one”) a bunch of political misfits, globalists and losers.”) even to the media Rupert Murdochlike Fox News And “New York Post”. And it attacked the network last weekend after it published a poll that showed the governor was the second choice for 34% of potential voters, despite receiving 43% against 28% of DeSantis. “Reminds me of 2016 when they supported Jeb (Bush).”, he said in a message on Truth.

DeSantis, currently unanswered and focused on a clearly conceived path to the nomination. after passing New York, Illinois and Pennsylvania to strengthen your identity as a politician tough on crimescheduling visits Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and perhaps South Carolina are key states at the head of the primaries. and keep rocking national interest and aggressive style and executive power among conservative intellectuals and donors to advance the conservative agenda, and culture warsespecially ‘against everything thought’I woke up’.

“A New Sheriff”

He did so this week with the release of his memoirs, where he presented his policy in Florida as a roadmap for the United States, and where Disney signed into law a law retracting special powers of self-government the company had. in the state for more than half a century Retaliation for criticizing his law known as ‘don’t say gay’ (limiting school teaching on issues of sexual orientation and gender identity). “There’s a new sheriff in this town”he said in true DeSantis fashion as he signed the rule.

Maybe he’s the one that many strategists, donors, and voters are looking for: someone who isn’t as divisive as Trump, but doesn’t soften politics or messages. But the real question is to know whether the hardness it exhibits will be sufficient against the blows. close fight with embers.

He still lives echo of 2016When real estate tycoon emerged victorious overcrowded primaries. Even though he was a different candidate this time, defeated by defeat, surrounded by various lawsuits and judicial investigations, and shaken by the exhaustion of some of his party base in November, he turned down the most radical and allied candidates with his “big lie”. no selection trickcould again benefit from a vote split in the internal struggle for the candidacy.

Also, as the FoxNews survey showed, Trump and DeSantis bases overlapformer president holds a solid core of unwavering support. It’s hard to measure, but some strategists calculate it this way: around 30% A percentage the bases cannot lose if the Republican Party wants to have presidential options in 2024.

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