In three months, a strong earthquake may occur off the southern coast of Japan, which can affect the Kuril Islands and Kamchatka. Alexey Lyubushin, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Principal Investigator of the Laboratory of Physics of Emissions of IPE RAS Test Masses, told socialbites.ca about this.
“Japan is in a dangerous position. Somewhere in three months from March to May 2023, there may be a very strong earthquake in the ocean south of Japan. The main danger here is a tsunami. Depending on the expected location of the seismic event, the tsunami could affect Tokyo. Therefore, great sacrifices are possible, ”said Lyubushin.
According to him, the forecast is based on analysis of seismic noise on the planet, and especially in Japan. Japan has an extensive, open database – 78 seismic stations record vibrations of the earth’s surface. These data formed the basis of the calculation. These fluctuations are linked in a particular way to earthquake preparedness.
“I used a geophysical parameter such as the length of the day (Earth sometimes spins slower, sometimes faster). Seismic noise parameters vary depending on the length of the day. There turned out to be a correlation: The increase in the response of seismic noise features to length of day correlates with seismic energy emissions. First there is an explosion of correlation, then after 430 days seismic energy is released. This is March of this year, ”explained Lyubushin.
The peak recorded by the scientist occurred at the end of 2022 and at the beginning of this year, both for Japan and for the whole world. Therefore, strong earthquakes are possible in other parts of the world.
“Of course, if there is an earthquake in Japan, it will be very severe. This can affect the Kuril Islands. Kamchatka too, but still very far, ”said Lyubushin.