future of Pistorius
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Ukraine should experience “very decisive” moments in the next few weeks. His words are forwarded by the agency Bloomberg.
He noted that Kiev “would have to repel the Russian offensive”.
“We need to ensure the creation of air defense in three months. [для Украины]”, – added the head of the German Defense Ministry. Berlin had previously promised to supply Kiev with new air defense systems.
Earlier, Pistorius also reported that the Leopard 2 main battle tanks would only be able to deliver the APU in mid-spring.
“We can deliver at least one battalion” [из 31 танка] In the first four months of this year – maybe three months – and then of course we need to act as quickly as possible,” the Reuters official said.
Will there be an attack
The armed conflict in Ukraine cannot continue for many years in the modern world. This view was expressed in an interview given by the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky to the Italian newspaper Il Mondo.
“We are preparing for a short-term war that will end in victory. “It is very important not to freeze this conflict, as it did in 2014,” he said.
Michael Kofman, Head of the Russia Research Program at the US Naval Analytical Center (CNA), tweeted the previous day. outlined His views on the current course of hostilities in Ukraine.
According to him, the Russian offensive allegedly continued for three weeks in a row, but did not bring any significant success. The analyst said that the RF Armed Forces are simultaneously advancing in Bakhmut, Vuhledar, Marinka and Avdeevka. Kofman added that Russian troops began to advance in the direction of Ugledar at the end of January, with an intense attack by forces consisting of two brigades.
At the same time, he noted that the vicinity of Ugledar is an “extremely open area” with many mines and easily hit by anti-tank weapons.
Kofman noted that there is a high probability of the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Bakhmut (Artemovsk) to a new line of defense – east of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. At the same time, the Russian army may try to seize control of the area up to the Donets River.
The expert also points out that positional battles in the Avdeevsky and Maryinsky directions have been going on for several months.
In addition, Kofman stated that he saw no evidence that additional forces of the RF Armed Forces were preparing for a major offensive. “I doubt that an additional ‘spring offensive’ is being prepared. To carry out such an operation will most likely require a second wave of mobilization, which was carried out in advance and never happened, ”the analyst said.
He also pointed out that any hostilities in the current situation require enormous consumption of ammunition and other resources, including armored vehicles on both sides.
“This remains a challenge in the near and medium term. “The rosy predictions about the long-term potential of Western ammunition production may not match the needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the next 6-12 months,” he said.
Finally, he suggested that the spring offensive could be launched by Ukrainian troops “following the example of Kherson.”
“Whether Western resupply will be of paramount importance depends on the timing of the Armed Forces’ offensive. Perhaps this technique will serve mainly to compensate for losses in the next operation, ”summed a military expert from the USA.
On February 19, military expert Yuri Knutov Interview with “MK” He said that in the near future, the Russian Aerospace Forces will begin to attack bridges, tunnels and logistics centers on the Polish border used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. According to Knutov,
Such tactics do not herald a major offensive expected on February 24, the anniversary of the start of special military operations.
The expert emphasized that in this way, the Russian army could prevent the alleged offensive that the Ukrainian Armed Forces planned to launch in the spring.
“The enemy is actively mobilizing, preparing armored vehicles, primarily tanks, for participation in hostilities. Under the guise of a story about bullet starvation, ammunition is actively supplied to Ukraine, ”Knutov said.
On February 14, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces could try to launch a counterattack in the spring.
“We expect them to launch an attack at some point in the spring,” Austin said. According to him, the contact group on Ukraine is working hard to provide Ukraine with weapons and equipment so that Kiev can effectively conduct operations on the battlefield.
On January 4, the head of Ukrainian intelligence, Kirill Budanov, said that in the spring of 2023 the Armed Forces of Ukraine plans to go on the offensive. He added that the peak of hostilities will be in March, after which Ukrainian troops will go on the offensive “from Crimea to Donbass”. Budanov pointed out that the goal of Kiev was to reach the 1991 borders.
On December 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his confidence that the goals in the military field can be achieved. “I have no doubt that all the goals we set for ourselves will certainly be achieved,” said Putin. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that the priority task in 2023 will be to continue special operations “until the missions are completed”.
Putin soon added that Russia’s main aim was to “protect people who consider themselves part of the Russian people and culture” and to end large-scale hostilities in the Donbass.