caixbank his throws real estate estimates until 2023. The financial institution predicts that this year will be a year of stability both in terms of prices and sales. “2022 has been a particularly good year with 650,000 transactions. household. But, We had a 10% drop in December and this will be repeated in the coming months.. “After a few months we’ve come in with a high figure, well above the historical average, and we’ll be at around 480,000 sales in 2023,” said Judit Montoriol, senior economist at CaixaBank Research and coordinator of the real estate industry report. The Efimad affair.
The business also expects house prices to not experience major drops but to start off moderately. “We foresee a recession in prices, but with a different behavior between new and used business. There will be a larger correction and price recession in second hand trading. On the contrary, we see more travel in the new construction market. “As a result, we see that the risk of triggering a sharp correction is very low.”
They emphasize the importance foreigners have in the housing market in 2022 from the bank.”They hit an all-time high with 95,000 sales, 15% of total sales.. “This affects some markets more than others, such as Alicante, the Balearic Islands or the Canary Islands, where they make up almost half of the operations.”
Mortgage Effort Growth
One of the most relevant indicators for knowing the health of the housing market is the mortgage effort ratio, which is the percentage of income that families set aside to pay off loan installments. Recent data from the Bank of Spain points to an “acceptable rate” of 33.6% for CaixaBank. “We hope this quarter and next mortgage effort is affected by the increase in rates and can reach up to 38%positions itself as the main factor that will stop the sale. It’s likely that if there is a drop in prices, it will drop by the end of the year,” explains Montoriol.
Despite the economist’s belief that 38% could be reached, CaixaBank’s first-period report indicated increases of up to 40.6%, with estimates prepared on December 15 last year. This threshold can be alarming because the Bank of Spain recommends that it not exceed 35%, whereas in the last bars of the bubble it exceeded 50%.
In a situation as complex as it is now, families continue to pay the principal on their mortgages, especially since the middle of last year. “With rising rates we’re seeing a lot of early debt repayments“CaixaBank recalls the coordinator of the real estate industry report.