” sanctions They are a slow-acting poison, like those made from arsenic: they take time to exert their effects, but they do, and they do it irreversibly”, summed up last week the high representative of the EU’s common foreign and security policy, Josep Borrellin the remainder of the nine sanctions package, Russia -the tenth is in preparation- It was approved by the governments of the European Union last year. suffocating the Kremlin’s economy and avoid war machine Keep hitting and destroying Ukraine. While the global impact may not be immediate or unexpected, the coup is unprecedented and the EU is confident that one coup will emerge victorious. compelling war whose results can only be measured in the medium/long term.
In addition to 1,386 people – Vladimir Putin even the foreign minister sergei lavrov, the Kremlin’s political leadership, propagandists, and numerous businessmen and oligarchs who support Moscow’s plans – and 171 entities on the individual sanctions list, the EU recently banned the export of any product to Russia. Years of technologies from quantum computers to semiconductors to electronics and high-end software. It also banned the sale to Moscow of civil and military dual-use goods and technologies, such as oil refining, aircraft engines, spare parts for aircraft and helicopters, jet fuel, radio communications technology and unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as software for unmanned aerial vehicles. . In short, everything that can be used to arm the Russian army in its war against Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Russia Export to EU prohibited crude oil (since last December), refined petroleum products (since February 5), coal and other solid fossil fuels, steel, iron and steel products, gold including jewellery, cement, wood, paper and plastic, shellfish and alcoholic beverages (caviar, vodka, etc.) or cigarettes and cosmetics. In addition to all this cap on the price of Russian crude oil and derivatives transported by sea This forces reinsurance, financing companies, or companies that handle such cargo, to do so only if the maximum selling price of a barrel is $60 for crude oil.
The enforcement strategy goes further, All kinds of restrictions in the road transport, aviation, maritime and financial sectors, Exclusion of Russian banks from the Swift payment communication system, ban on transactions with the Bank of Russia and Belarus. In addition, Moscow does not receive some services from European companies: consulting, legal advice, engineering or accounting. Despite the tight closure of the Russian market and announcing that more than a thousand companies will leave Russia this year, there are still those who continue to operate in the country, according to a Yale University census.
Moscow pulls the blow
Just a few months ago, the international consensus was that the coup would be fatal, with the Russian economy collapsing and a brutal economic downturn that the Kremlin could recover in a decade. This economic collapseHowever, there are not only non-produced, but also such organisms as: International Monetary Fund Not only does the Russian economy shrink, as recently advocated (OECD 5.6% and the World Bank 3.3% last November, it also predicts that it will grow by 0.3% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024).
“January figures on Russian budget expenditures are so worrying that there is talk of an imminent collapse of the economy. In the first month of 2023, the deficit reached a record level of 1.8 trillion rubles. Compared to January 2022, when the budget surplus was 125 billion rubles ($25 billion), spending increased by 58%, while revenue fell by more than a third. However, it would be premature to ignore the Russian economy based on the figures for a single month,” he said. Carnegie Europe.
The year of occupation was an extremely positive year for the Russian hydrocarbon industry, as Moscow benefited from a “hysterical” price increase after Europe’s decision to become independent of Russian oil and gas, despite selling less to the European continent. According to the Russian Government’s estimates, he allowed 28% more access to Borrell. In the first 100 days of the war alone, 93 billion euros came in from coal, gas and oil exports, of which 57 billion euros corresponded to sales to the EU. Clean Air and Energy Research Center (CREATES).
The Commission believes that this scenario will change in 2023 as a result of Europe’s decision to diversify supply and cap the price of oil, which forced Moscow to sell oil. black gold Discounted prices to China and India. Putin thought that our support for Ukraine would not last long. He thought it would be easy to hold Europe hostage because we depend on Russian oil and gas. But he was wrong, and today, one year after the start of the war, he has already lost the energy war he started.” Ursula von der Leyenwhich number 160 million € revenue that the Kremlin stops getting every day because of the cap on oil.
As of January 2023, the reality is Russian income almost halved -46% lower than in January 2022- and the public deficit skyrocketed. “Fourteen times higher in January 2023 than in January 2022,” Borrell said this week as an example. In addition, Russia’s trade balance, which had a trade surplus in 2022 due to an excellent wheat harvest, was at “the lowest level of the historical average since 2007” in January. Despite this blow, Prokopenko thinks the Russian economy is entering 2023 stronger than expected thanks to last year’s outstanding revenue and sales to Asian countries, and the impact will depend on how strong European export controls are. “When the sanctioned country has significant financial resources, the impact of sanctions can only be slow, gradual and cumulative. It is an illusion to expect the collapse of a leading economy,” he predicts. agathe demaraisHe is the author of “Backlash: How Sanctions Are Reshaping the World Against US Interests.”