After being voiced military setbacks On the battlefield in autumn and early winter, Russia seems to be driven by haste and urgency in recent weeks. Or what is the same as the slogan “now or never”. According to the reports of the Ukrainian intelligence services, the President Vladimir Putin He set the goal of his troops taking full control of their province. Donetsk And lugansk February 24, which coincides with the first anniversary of the start of the war window of opportunity It was given to him in the coming weeks that the Kiev Army would still be. in defense and new weapons approved by Western governments, such as the Leopard tanks, will not yet be operational.
After consulting reports and military experts, this newspaper tries to uncover the truth. concrete realization such orders on the war front, the possible scope of the attack, the Kremlin’s chances of success, and finally Ukraine’s ability to respond to the challenge.
What is known about the preparations for the attack?
If this is not a trap, it seems that the Russian war effort will be concentrated mainly in Lugansk, but also in Donetsk. The first province was temporarily completely under the control of Russian troops, but in September the Ukrainian side won a symbolic victory by liberating a small town. bilohorovkaWith a population of 134, it ruins the victorious Russian proclamations of spring after the conquest of Lisichansk, the last major Ukrainian-held city of this border.
According to that Institute for War Studies (ISW)In Lugansk, the Russian side is massing troops, moving military personnel and even blocking internet access to prevent residents loyal to the Kiev government from revealing the Russian Army’s positions to the enemy. “The most likely effort is in Donetsk and Lugansk, where Russia has made some progress since January and will continue to cross Ukraine’s borders,” said David Lewis, professor of Global Policy at the University of Ukraine. an e-mail. University of Exeter and an expert on international security and authoritarianism.
What are the Kremlin’s chances of victory?
more than that decisive blow To force the Ukrainians to surrender or clash a negotiation In favorable conditions for Moscow, up to the maximum russian side to create new lines of defense that he may aspire to and push his opponent back. Analysts say that the goal of completely conquering both states cannot be achieved in any case before the fateful date of February 24. “Actually, the attack has already begun and they will try to conquer it. more regions in Donbas; They are not likely to think they can achieve any great success before the age of 24; They probably planned an offensive that would continue throughout March and set up new defences,” says Lewis. Of course. Any eventual conquest, such as the town of Bakhmut, will “cost heavy losses,” continues the expert, “strongly fortified.” Ignoring that they could approach the towns of Kramatorsk and Slaviansk.
On the front lines, beyond the Donbas, there are areas that Russia should not be neglected and certainly not have the attitude of seeing them. One of these places is in the south, especially province of Zaporizhia. In this area, the land corridor he managed to establish between Crimea and Donbas at the beginning of the conflict is very vulnerable, and a possible Ukrainian counterattack could undo the main success his troops had achieved since the beginning of the offensive. The British academic sums up that “Russia wants to move its lines away from Melitopol” so that the land corridor is “less exposed”.
What is the likely reaction of Ukraine to the attack?
With a momentary draw on the ground, everything will depend on the ability of both parties. to fill weapons stocks. According to Professor Lewis, Ukrainians and Russians are kind of “arms race“, first starting from the west and the second with purchases “to Iran”It’s one of the few allies the Kremlin has, which allows us to move forward.”escalation of hostilities“Although neither of them has a chance to strike a decisive blow in the coming weeks.
If the Russian attack fails desired results and Kremlin Army experiences casualties like what happened during the attack on his town. whistleblowerIn a place where very serious events such as the destruction of thirty armored vehicles in a single attack are discussed, things can get very difficult for Moscow and open the door to a new war. Pre-spring Ukrainian counteroffensive. “This Russian offensive could offer Ukraine an opportunity for an effective counterattack,” concludes the professor from the University of Exeter. Conversely, if this population fell into the hands of the Russians, as has been announced several times in many messages and propaganda announcements, Russian troops could open a penetration gap by breaking through the front between the Zaporozhye and Donetsk regions. on the lines of Ukraine. As the President himself admits, the conflict in that town is fierce. Volodymyr Zelensky.