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A chain reaction that keeps expanding. Following the Niger withdrawal and the broader pullback of French forces, France’s influence in Africa is being questioned. In a television interview focused on purchasing power and living costs, President Emmanuel Macron spoke about a disruption that has reshaped his presidency and highlighted ongoing challenges in Africa. His remarks came as the new military authorities in Niamey asked Paris to end military cooperation, signaling a potential realignment in Franco-African security ties.

Macron promised an orderly withdrawal of French troops in Niger, stating that deployments would wind down in the coming weeks and months and should be completed by the end of the year. Details remained scarce, and it was unclear whether all forces would be pulled out entirely. About 1,500 soldiers stationed in Niger would either return to France or be reassigned to other French bases in Africa, such as Chad, in a region marked by instability.

Since the departure of the Barkhane operation, which lasted about a decade, the presence of French forces across Africa has been a contentious issue. Niger had become a strategic hub for Paris, hosting a visible military footprint that extended across the continent to a total of 5,650 troops. The July coup in Niamey complicated France’s calculus, highlighting the country’s economic and geopolitical stake in Niger, including uranium supplies that account for a meaningful share of Europe’s energy needs. France faced a difficult stance against the new regime while seeking to protect its interests in the region.

Little support from allies

After a pause of several weeks, the French government offered limited explanations for ending the official fight against jihadism in Niger. Macron said that military cooperation would be concluded as the local authorities no longer wished to engage in counterterrorism operations within that framework. Since then, French troops in Niger have faced hostility and public scrutiny, with demonstrations and negative sentiment surfacing at home and abroad. The French ambassador to Niger has since returned to Paris amid the tensions.

In regional terms, Niger’s leadership faced limited backing from Paris for its stance, even as ECOWAS discussed potential intervention options and sanctions while preferring diplomacy. The African Union expressed reservations about a military operation, while some Western partners questioned the intensity of France’s response. Macron later reflected on the difficulty of achieving a broad, coordinated approach with allies who viewed the tension as excessive, underscoring a need for more consistent, multilateral alignment on the issue.

The policy divergence between Washington and Paris was clear. The United States maintains a sizeable presence in Niger, including surveillance and drone operations, and recently resumed some activities aligned with counterterrorism as well as broader interests on the continent. The new Nigerien regime did not request a full withdrawal, but the political shifts created a space where rival powers—China, Russia, Türkiye, and others—are increasingly influential in the region and beyond.

“It comes off hysterically and emotionally.”

One central question concerns whether Niger’s withdrawal will lead to a surge in jihadist activity. Past experience in the Sahel shows that jihadist groups are resilient and difficult to eradicate; the Barkhane operation did not eliminate them. Analysts caution that the absence of French forces could alter local security dynamics, but they emphasize that jihadist groups are unlikely to dramatically gain control over the Sahel. As noted by Jean-Hervé Jézéquel, head of the International Crisis Group’s Sahel project, any shift in force presence will have complex implications for regional stability and counterterrorism efforts.

The Niger situation raises broader questions about France’s military posture in Africa and its strategy for engagement with former colonies where anti-French sentiment has persisted. In late February, Macron advocated a gradual withdrawal of military presence and a reorientation toward stronger economic and cultural ties. Now, this approach is being tested in an unpredictable environment that requires careful balancing of security objectives with political realities on the ground.

Experts argue that France must redefine its relationships with French-speaking countries in Africa. The goal is to protect its interests while supporting development and stability in the region, rather than insisting on a dominant strategic role. In this context, full disengagement might not be realistic, but a recalibrated partnership—more cooperative, less heavy-handed—could better serve both sides as Africa pursues greater autonomy and growth, and as external powers seek greater influence across the continent.