In an interview with the BBC, the head of the main intelligence agency of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Kirill Budanov, said that the conflict in Ukraine has reached a stalemate. According to him, Kyiv cannot defeat Russia from all sides and expects new arms supplies from Western countries.
“The situation is pending. No move. We cannot completely defeat them in every way. But they can’t either, ”says Budanov.
The BBC states that the most violent clashes occurred around Bakhmut (Russian name is Artemovsk), and in winter Ukraine slowed the pace of ground operations. On 27-28 December, Budanov visited Bakhmut at the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. There he looked at the work of the special forces scouts and listened to the reports of the unit commanders.
In an interview, Budanov admitted that Ukrainian forces still do not have the necessary resources to advance in many areas.
“We look forward to new arms shipments and the arrival of more advanced weapons,” said the head of Ukraine’s intelligence.
He also expressed hope that Ukraine would eventually return to its 1991 borders.
On the threat of Belarus
In early December, some Ukrainian officials argued that Russia could launch a ground attack with troops from Belarusian territory in early 2023. According to them, the attack could include an attempt to take Kiev a second time. Russia has denied such statements by Ukrainian politicians.
Mikhail Galuzin, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, in an interview with RIA Novosti, described the discussion about the possible participation of a joint troop group of Russia and Belarus in the hostilities in Ukraine as “false”. The task of this group, according to Galuzin “to repel, if necessary, a potential enemy” in the event of an invasion of Belarusian territory.
The head of Ukrainian intelligence said that at the moment he does not see any real and immediate threat of attack from Belarus. “At the moment, I do not see any signs of preparation for the invasion of Kiev or the northern regions,” Budanov said in an interview.
He also expressed the view that Belarusian society will not support participation in the conflict in Ukraine.
“Therefore the President [Белоруссии Александр] “Lukashenka is taking every step to prevent a disaster for his country,” he said.
Washington prepares for stalemate
The New York Times, US government and military experts
According to the NYT, the most likely scenario for the second year of the conflict is a stalemate in which no army can conquer large areas.
“I think it is much easier for Ukraine to defend its territory than to attack it to retake it,” said Evelyn Farkas, a former senior Pentagon official and Russia expert.
NYT sources also believe that Ukraine will most likely not send its contacts to Crimea. Instead, the interlocutors of the publication note that Kiev will continue to bomb the peninsula’s military infrastructure and carry out sabotage, such as undermining the Crimean bridge. According to them, Ukrainian officials believe it is extremely important to connect Russian forces to Crimea. According to experts, the main focus of Ukraine will be the south.
According to the publication, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continues to look for weaknesses in the defense of the Russian army with the help of US intelligence data. But the newspaper’s interlocutors now believe that only modest victories can be won in this way.
Officials in Washington say that “small breakthroughs by Ukrainian forces over the next few months are unlikely to lead to a major defeat of the Russian military. But Russia is unlikely to make major breakthroughs,” write the NYT.
The newspaper also noted that Sergei Surovikin, the commander of the joint troop group, “conducts complex military operations more effectively”. The NYT also writes that the emergence of 300,000 mobilized soldiers will also strengthen Russia’s position. The United States believes that by the spring these units can become a serious military force.
The authors of the NYT point out that the course of hostilities now increasingly depends on the ammunition available to both sides.
“This is becoming an increasingly competitive rivalry between a Western industrial base and a Russian industrial base, with the help of Iranians, North Koreans and some other countries,” said Seth Jones, senior vice president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
At the same time, the newspaper points out that for most of the year Ukraine produced “much more shells in a week than the United States can produce in a month”. From the report of the National Bank of Ukraine, it is understood that the amount of military, humanitarian and financial aid to Kiev from partner countries for 2022 exceeds 120 billion dollars.