Ukraine forecasts a 30.4% decline in GDP in 2022
According to the preliminary forecast of the Ukrainian Ministry of Economy, Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) would contract by 30.4% in 2022, compared to an expansion of 3.4% in 2021 as a result of the Russian occupation. He stressed that although it was the worst figure since the country’s independence in 1991, it had improved the prospects of most experts at the start of the war.
“This is objectively the worst outcome since independence, but better than most experts expected at the start of the full-scale invasion, where estimates range from a 40 to 50 percent decline in GDP,” the ministry said in a statement.
In the provisional assessment made by the Ministry of Economy using indirect calculation methods and modeling tools, the 15.1% contraction of GDP in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the same period of the previous year was taken into account; a 37.2% decrease in the second quarter and a 30.8% contraction in the third quarter.