In the lead-up to the new year, preparations are underway as the question of a 20-cent fuel discount that expires on January 1, 2023 weighs on markets and motorists. The topic has emerged as one of the better-kept agendas within government circles, with ministries adjusting plans as the calendar turns and the impact of evolving tax policy on pump prices becomes clearer to consumers. As the year draws to a close, fuel stations brace for the familiar phenomena that can accompany a price shift, especially in the final days before any fiscal change is enacted.
Analysts and station operators warn that if a price is offered on December 31 at one level and then jumps by 20 cents on January 1, shoppers are likely to fill up before the year ends. They argue that shortages can occur if supply chains and staffing are not aligned well in advance. The Spanish Confederation of Service Station Entrepreneurs, known as CEEES and representing a large share of independent operators, notes that it has not received definitive guidance from Treasury authorities and that cooperation has begun to be more about managing the immediate interests of members within the framework of existing regulations. Operators describe the situation as neither purely informal nor strictly formal, highlighting the challenge of coordinating access to supply and workforce during the last week of the year.
Speculation has intensified following the meeting of the government council around December 27, with some misstatements during public appearances creating confusion about dates and responsibilities. The government later clarified that the expiration of certain tax measures and employment policies would be addressed in a broader package aimed at stabilizing prices, supporting households, and shaping policy responses to high energy costs driven in part by the ongoing conflict in Europe. In assessing the factors behind these policy choices, observers point to inflation control, the scale of public expenditure, and the potential regressive effects that could favor higher-income households if a subsidy or discount is retained or modified.
Current government data indicate that gasoline prices have fallen from levels seen at the start of the crisis and are near prices observed before the war’s onset. Recent weekly averages show the national pump price for gasoline hovering around levels that support consumer relief. Diesel, however, presents a different trajectory, remaining notably higher and showing a tendency to rise again because of Europe’s reliance on imported diesel fuels from regions beyond local production. This divergence underscores the uneven impact on fleets and private drivers alike as markets seek balance in a volatile energy landscape.
Major oil companies, including Repsol, Cepsa, and BP, have opted to await formal guidance before commenting extensively. Industry insiders anticipate potential bottlenecks in the final days of the year but do not expect widespread disruption beyond localized constraints. Analysts describe two plausible scenarios: either maintain the present discount model for a short period or remove it if the operating conditions cannot be sustained. Any transition would require adjustments to back-office software at service stations, though it should not automatically trigger wider supply problems. Options to support vulnerable households or provide carrier-specific bonuses are among the contingency ideas being explored by policymakers, with fuel retailers weighing how to implement changes without destabilizing wholesale markets.
Should the subsidy be withdrawn, industry communications teams are already preparing messaging to reassure customers. There is talk of shifting the policy focus toward loyalty-based programs or other trade policy tools to maintain consumer confidence. The discussion has also drawn attention from the National Markets and Competition Commission (CNMC), which announced investigations into the pricing practices of major oil groups following reports of aggressive discounts to end customers alongside high wholesale prices. The CNMC aims to ensure that competition remains fair and that smaller players can compete on a level playing field.[Source attribution: CNMC investigations portal].
Meanwhile, interest groups representing carriers continue to monitor the situation. The National Road Transport Committee (CNTC) says there have been no formal negotiations about extending the discount into January, but notes that any sustained relief would likely be part of signed agreements between the transportation sector and the relevant ministries. The CNTC emphasizes that stakeholders anticipated some form of relief as economic pressures persisted, with possibilities including a professional diesel premium tied to quarterly returns or targeted support for carriers operating under 3,500 kilograms. The final outcome may hinge on government decisions made in the closing days of the year, and many see the timing as critical to preventing a last-minute spike in costs for operators and drivers alike.