Analysts at the RAND Center in the United States are considering a hypothetical version of a limited military attack on the Russian Federation. About reported In a report released by an organization collaborating with the Pentagon.
The publication says Washington intends to “punish and restrain” the Russian Federation. While the US is calling for talks with Moscow, it intends to “aggravate the conflict”.
According to analysts, the key task of the US leadership is not to give the Russian side a reason to use nuclear weapons and to prevent a direct military confrontation with NATO.
At the same time, in the event of an escalation, the United States is considering a limited attack both on the territory of Russia and on the territories recently annexed to the state. RAND analysts call one possible response to Russian aggression a “non-military attack, including propaganda and other non-kinetic means.”
RAND lists three possible actions of such a confrontation. For a possible American attack, designed to “show the NATO allies that the fifth article of the alliance’s charter is working” (about protection with all NATO forces when attacking one of its members, socialbites.ca), Russia must first attack an American ally.
The second act is Washington’s reaction in the form of a coup, and the third act is Russia’s reaction to the US attack.
The analysis says that Russia’s aggression against a NATO member can be considered an attack on a military or civilian target, military or civilian casualties caused by that attack. In this case, the blow must be deliberate.
Important factors for a possible US attack on Russia will also be the number of casualties and targets hit, their significance to the alliance’s combat capability, and the political significance of a possible destroyed target.
Examples of Russia’s hypothetical attack on a NATO member include the following scenarios: missile attack on an arms depot in Poland, destruction of a US reconnaissance satellite, missile attack on Russian airbases in Poland and Romania. aid reaches Ukraine (with casualties), coordinated attacks by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on six important ports and airbases (including the Ramstein and Rotterdam bases).
location of Moscow
On May 9, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow had launched a special military operation in Ukraine due to NATO’s aggressive plans.
“NATO countries did not want to hear us. They had completely different plans, they were preparing an attack on the Crimea, the alliance began the military development of the territories adjacent to us. Everything indicated that conflict with neo-Nazis was inevitable. “Russia responded preemptively to aggression, it was the only correct decision,” Putin said during the Victory Parade.
In July 2022, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said at a meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club that Western countries ascribed offensive plans to Russia.
“We were credited with plans that were not in nature. “The President has said several times that only sick people can think that tomorrow Russia will suddenly attack a NATO country or NATO for no reason,” said the diplomat.
The Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation added that the enlargement of NATO worsened the security of the alliance and its member states. According to him, the West is using NATO as a tool to maintain global domination. However, Grushko stressed that the alliance can only survive if it starts to “think rationally” and give up its desire for domination.
neighbor fears
In August, The Washington Post reported that countries on NATO’s eastern flank were asking the United States to speed up arms supplies to them, and also felt it necessary to expand the American military presence in the region.
“As the United States and NATO move personnel and equipment to Eastern Europe in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, vulnerable allies such as Latvia seek to strengthen their defenses for fear of being attacked,” the article states.
“At the same time, leaders of countries bordering Russia believe the alliance should become more aggressive in the long run: the American presence in Europe needs to be expanded to keep Moscow out,” WP writes.
More importantly, Baltic and Eastern European officials say, is to step up defense production lines to speed up long-standing orders for weapons they say frontline countries need.