las perspectives The Spanish economy, which is expected to grow by about 6% this year thanks to the driving force of the European funds, softened significantly – up to 4% – after the prices increased rapidly due to the increase in energy prices caused by the war. in Ukraine.
Public and private organizations that publish the first reviews of the impact of the war agree that inflation could reach an average of 7% this year. 9.8% per annumthe highest level in almost four decades.
All because of the enormous uncertainty surrounding the current situation and downside risks That could happen if the conflict in Ukraine drags on and energy prices spiral out of control.
However, if they accept Iberian proposal To temporarily limit the price of gas in the wholesale electricity market, the electricity bill could be significantly cheaper, in part by dissipating inflationary pressures.
And GDP growth Between 4% and 4.5% would in any case represent significant progress, but will remain below the 5.1% recorded in 2021 and will be a long way off from the 7% the Government initially calculated for 2022 and will soon hit the lowest level once it sends stability. will review. Program update to Brussels.
to wait Executive The Bank of Spain, which has prepared its new macroeconomic forecasts before April 30, has already released its own report, with 4.5% growth and 7.5% average inflation until the summer, and CPI rates ranging from 9% to 10% by summer.
The Independent Financial Responsibility Authority (AIReF) slashed GDP growth to 4.3%, but average inflation It will stay at 6.2%.
Funcas calculates economic growth to be 4.2% and estimates the average CPI to be 6.8%, although it expects inflation to peak in March. will start to fall in april It will close December with 4.4%.
a little more pessimistic BBVA Research It forecasts GDP growth to remain at 4.1% and average inflation to reach 7%.
Rental contract
High prices have caused strong distrust among consumers and companies, which is expected to drag the market down. dynamism business investments and family expenditures most affected by the decline in purchasing power.
In this context, a wage smoothing pact is expected by business and trade union organizations to avoid the second-round effects that are feared that could feed the inflationary spiral, but for now. social agents maintain their distance positions.
BBVA Research suggests including pensions in this lease moderator agreementExcept for the minimum, although the Government has no intention of not complying with the latest reform that calls for a reassessment of the law with average annual inflation.
AIReF predicts retirement spending will increase by: 1,500 million euros more For each point of rise in inflation, collection will also improve, since for each point of the CPI it is estimated to increase by 2,000 million, mainly through VAT, but also through personal income tax and social contributions.
This will help correct the public deficit to 4.2% of GDP this year, below the Government’s estimate. (5% of GDP)According to the AIReF, the good starting point left by the 2021 record tax collection is a downturn.
The Bank of Spain is calculating a slightly worse-than-expected December budget close for 2022 (5% of GDP) due to the worsening economic outlook, measures taken to mitigate the impact of the war and measures taken to mitigate the impact of the crisis. updating certain expense items (pensions, civil servants’ salaries and other social benefits) through higher inflation.