“The Azov battalion is small and they will probably all die defending Mariupol”

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Emily Channell-Justice heads the Contemporary Ukrainian Studies program at Harvard University. She is a social anthropologist and has been researching the social and political reality of Ukraine for ten years. She wants to be allowed to decide the future of the country, even if it means joining the European Union. He says it is the West’s duty to rebuild Ukraine. industry and energy production are destroyed. He rejects the idea of ​​a country traditionally divided into pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian. He says the power of the far right in the country is minimal. He participates in EL PERIÓDICO DE ESPAÑA, a newspaper belonging to the same publishing group as this media, via video conference from the United States.

How do you see the future of Ukraine?

It is very vague, but there is some certainty: Ukrainians are more committed to the idea of ​​Ukraine than ever before in history. The war brought them together. The big geopolitical questions about what the map of the country will look like are very clear.

How was Ukrainian society divided after the war? There are ethnic Russians and ethnic Ukrainians and two languages ​​are spoken, Russian and Ukrainian.

There is no relation between being ethnically Russian and speaking Russian in Ukraine. The vast majority of people who speak Russian as their mother tongue need not be ethnically Russian. Ukrainians speak Russian. And almost all of them are bilingual. Because of the large number of Russian speakers, it was wrongly assumed that they would be pro-Russian. This is just wrong.

Did the orientation of those who support Russia change after the occupation?

Ukrainians of Russian ethnicity that I know are not pro-Russian in any way and they learn Ukrainian to avoid being stuck with the language of the “oppressors”. In the 2010 elections, there were maps showing how the western half of the country voted overwhelmingly for the pro-European Yulia Tymoshenko, and the eastern part of the country voted for Viktor Yanukovych. But he did not present himself as a pro-Russian candidate at the time: he supported a multi-vector Ukrainian foreign policy balanced between Europe and Russia.

“If Ukraine falls, the current world order created after the second world war will collapse”

Then he was deposed after the Maidan revolts…

Since then we can no longer say that Ukraine is divided between east and west, as pro-European protests have reached the east, even Donetsk or Crimea. Then the separatists took power in Donbas, and most of the pro-Europeans living in these places left with an exodus of at least one and a half million. [de una población de alrededor de cinco millones].

What does it mean to be prorruso in Ukraine?

Complicated. They have a lot of relations with Russia in the eastern region and have relatives on the other side of the border. Both countries have an important historical relationship. But be careful, if by pro-Russian we mean people who want Ukraine to be part of Russia, there are very few of them. If we understand pro-Russian as “I don’t hate Russia”, this represented the majority of the people, at least until the February 24 invasion.

The conflict began in 2014. Russia and some Western analysts, Euromaidan’s [las protestas y el derrocamiento del líder prorruso Víctor Yanúkovich] it was a “blow” and the first bullets were fired by the demonstrators themselves. Was it like this?

This is false, there is no conclusive proof that this is happening, and those who say it hurt a lot because they have no proof. A highly problematic narrative that serves Russian interests. It is a conspiracy theory based on a single political scientist who has not published his work in any peer-reviewed journals.

Volodymyr Zelensky was elected president with three out of four votes. Do you still have popular support right now?

Probably increased. People are closer than ever before. Although I would guess that splits will appear. Zelensky received more votes than any other president in Ukraine’s history. In November 2021, its popularity had fallen to its lowest point. What is unknown is how high it will rise, especially after a peace deal has been negotiated. Depending on which payoff, it will go up or down. My impression is that the Ukrainians are not ready to give up any part of their land. If Zelensky is forced to formally surrender Crimea forever, he may lose support.

There are concerns about what will happen to the weapons delivered to Ukraine and the civilian population or ultranationalist groups. Is it okay if there is an agreement with the transfers and these groups don’t accept it?

I don’t want to assume this will be a problem before it happens. At Euromaidan we saw battalions fighting in eastern Ukraine and later integrated into the Ukrainian Army. Some were from the far right, and it was one of the criticisms of previous president Petro Poroshenko: his links to the far right. I am concerned that there are attempts by far-right groups to seize a large part of power.

Azov battalion?

The Azov battalion is very small and with the rise of Zelensky they lost any political power they had. Now they are concentrated in Mariúpol, where there are less than a thousand people, and they defend a city left at ground level. They are not in a position of power. Even if they come out of this as a battalion, they will be lucky: I think they will all die. To be honest, I’m more worried about the Russian Nazis killing Ukrainians. I don’t think Ukraine has a problem with the far right. Especially after the election of Zelensky, the far right is at its lowest power level in history. But yes, we will have to deal with this war material in civilian hands after the war is over.

“If the Ukrainians decide to accept a neutral position, it’s perfect, you have to respect that”

What will the next day of this war look like economically and politically?

Ukraine will need a lot of help. It invests billions in the development of infrastructures such as bridges or roads that have now been demolished. Europe will be responsible for giving most of this aid. The Ukrainian agricultural industry will be hit hard not only by the losses suffered by the farmers during the war, the lack of harvest, but also by the lack of fertilizers from Russia. Mariúpol was destroyed and was one of the most important industrial producers in the country. Severe damage is also occurring to the energy infrastructure of eastern Ukraine, where most of the electricity comes from. In addition to prosecuting Russian war crimes, we should also be mindful of reconstruction aid.

What about the Ukrainian debt?

There are those who want it canceled to help the country recover. This will be a significant change for the country’s economy. Otherwise, it will be difficult to pull Ukraine out of post-war destruction. According to the World Bank, GDP will drop by almost 50% before the end of the year.

How do you think the war will end?

I believe that my debt to the friends who fought in Ukraine is to say that Ukraine will win and therefore certainly deserves to join NATO and the European Union. I hope countries that can help the country keep this in mind.

But is this realistic?

Yes, Hungary is the only country in Europe to veto Ukraine’s entry. It depends on what the EU wants. And about NATO: the world owes it to Ukraine, the border currently separating us from a third world war. In fact, they say they are defending NATO, and they are. If Ukraine falls, the current world order created after the second world war will collapse.

Many analysts say the only possible peace deal includes Ukraine’s neutrality. Is there any way they can get into NATO?

Of course there is: it involves removing Vladimir Putin from the Kremlin and a complete reorganization of the Russian power structure. This is a very long-term thing, of course. Zelensky said any deal would be voted on in a referendum. If Ukrainians decide to accept a neutral, excellent position, this must be respected. It’s all too easy to get into the dynamics of realpolitik and think that Russia is strong and Ukraine is not. But it is not so difficult for us to put ourselves in the shoes of the Ukrainians in the comfort and safety of our home and think what will happen if Ukraine gets everything it wants. Russia invaded a non-threatening country, killed an unknown number of civilians, and devastated the country beyond acceptable. We should at least consider the option.

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