According to the Hydrometeorological Center, the snow level in Moscow on December 19 was 35 cm – such snowdrifts were last observed in 1941. However, despite the rarity and “anomaly” of this event, it is still not worth considering as something unusual, Marina Makarova, the leading meteorologist of the Russian Hydrometeorological Center, told socialbites.ca.
“We attribute the meaning of “deviation from the mean” to the concept of anomaly in meteorology. The norm of the height of the snow cover for this period is 15 cm. Now it is twice as high, this height is typical for the peak of winter, January 31 – February 1.
Yes, it’s snowy December, but it happens. We had less rain last year but it was still a snowy month and there were 23-25cm snowdrifts left by Christmas. And we had a very snowy February in 2021. These are generally normal processes and we’re pretty calm about these logs.
The weather variability between years can be huge: last December was snowy and cold, this year there are long thaws. But in December 2019 the temperature was above zero and snow cover never formed. This was truly an anomaly – the first such case in the history of observation,” he said.
Makarova stated that snow height is not the most important parameter for experts. Therefore, for hydrologists and agrometeorologists, the moisture reserves of the snow are important – how much water it contains. The forecast for spring floods depends on it. Snow density is also important for calculating moisture reserves, but is no longer high. 13mm of precipitation fell overnight on December 18 and 12mm of precipitation fell the previous week on December 12th, but there was no such record snowfall that day.
“When snow falls at such a low temperature, it’s very fluffy,” said the meteorologist. — Since December 21, a thaw has come. This snow will compress, sag under its own weight, melt. So the height of the snowdrifts is a very relative parameter, you need to understand this and calmly react to the abundance of snow. Before the previous thaw, our snow cover height was 20 cm, the thaw has passed – it has become 5 cm, and from this 5 cm we have come to 34 cm, now the snow level will fall again. Snow cover has complex dynamics throughout the winter in general, because now it’s cold, now it’s melting, now it’s snow, now it’s raining, then there’s no precipitation.”
This December has yet to set a record in terms of precipitation, although it has nearly doubled the 51mm norm. However, the richest in precipitation was in December 1874, Makarova noted – at that time their level was 115 mm. Second place went to December 1981 – 112 mm of precipitation.
It is not yet clear whether the same or heavier snowfalls are expected in January and February: like other precipitations, it is difficult to predict in the long term.
“The challenge with precipitation is that the models used for numerical forecasting do not yet allow to account for all the spatial and temporal heterogeneity inherent in nature. Therefore, there are difficulties in forecasting precipitation, especially extreme ones – you can be caught in a downpour in the center of Moscow, and not a drop will spill three kilometers from you, ”said the author. AI GI Marchuk RAS Maria Tarasevich.
Calculations take into account air temperature and humidity, wind speed, ground pressure and other factors. And the outcome of the forecast largely depends on how complete and reliable this data will be. In addition, the quality of the numerical prediction model is important – spatial resolution, quality of description of physical processes occurring in the atmosphere and on the underlying surface. At the same time, a model that predicts precipitation and its volume with 100% accuracy is not yet available anywhere on the planet.
“It cannot be said that there is a very good solution anywhere in the world that does not exist in Russia. Or that we have some problems specific to our country.
The problem of precipitation forecasting is worldwide. And that’s sad enough because rainfall, especially heavy rainfall, as we see it now or in the summer months, greatly affects the socio-economic component of human life.
Prolonged torrential rains in summer cause river banks to flood and flood homes and farmland: human casualties occur and crop losses occur. Heavy snowfall in winter causes traffic jams and accidents on the roads. All of the above directly affects the lives of each of us, so a high-quality forecast of extreme weather events is in great demand.
“The closer and shorter the forecast, the more accurate it is. Especially this snowfall and the previous snowfall were predicted very well. But mistakes do exist and will always happen because that’s how our world works. You can’t predict your mood in the long run – it can suddenly change and you can’t even explain why. The weather is the same, ”Makarova added.
While the high snowdrifts have attracted the attention of Muscovites, the world has experienced much heavier snowfall in recent years.
The most significant snowfall in history was a snowstorm in Iran in February 1972 – after which the depth of snow reached 8 meters in places. This snowfall was also the deadliest – more than 4,000 people died during this time. Several villages were completely destroyed – houses were buried under such a layer of snow that residents could not get out.
Another important event was the snowstorm in Afghanistan in 2008. In January the temperature dropped to -30°C and snow fell as much as two meters in some areas. The snowfall killed nearly a thousand people, with more than a hundred people having to amputate their toes and feet due to frostbite as they walked barefoot in the snow.
In 1977, western New York and southern Ontario experienced snowfall – snow heights exceeding 2.5m in places An additional problem was winds of over 100m/s that caused snowfalls of up to 12m, less than 30 overall people died. A storm. However, the snow removal took more than two weeks, which seriously affected traffic. This became a problem especially for boarding schools where food supplies were depleted – food had to be delivered by helicopters.
In March 1993, the so-called “Storm of the Century” occurred, accompanied by heavy snowfalls. Although the snow level was not that high – up to 130 cm in the mountains and about a meter in the plains – the blizzard affected a wide area from Canada to Honduras.
Snowfall was recorded for the first time in some highland areas. More than 300 people fell victim to snowfall along with a hurricane.
Even non-abnormal (at least by Russian standards) snowfall can be a problem for unprepared regions. Snowfall of up to 45 cm in China at the end of January 2008 turned into a disaster for the unusual central and southern provinces. Transport and aircraft movement were paralyzed, power lines were damaged, and food delivery to markets and shops was halted. In Wuhan, Jingzhou, Yichang and other cities, water pipes froze and cracked, leaving many residents without water.
Currently, hundreds of millions of Chinese have traditionally gone home to celebrate the Chinese New Year with their loved ones – as a result, many of them are stranded at airports and train stations. Snowfall has caused many car and bus accidents, and the weight of the accumulated snow has caused the roofs of more than a million low-rise buildings to collapse. More than 200,000 were completely destroyed. In the following days, the melting snow cooled the water in the sea and fish farms so much that it caused the death of many fish. About 1,500 tons of dead fish were caught, especially on the islands in the Penghu archipelago.
In total, at least 129 people died from traffic jams, accidents, building collapses, cold and other consequences of snowfall. There were also electricians trying to clean the power lines. Doctors assisted more than 200,000 victims. 1.66 million Chinese lost their homes. In addition, tens of thousands of livestock died, thousands of vegetable greenhouses were destroyed.
All large-scale snowfalls posed similar problems: people died from the cold, in traffic accidents, and in their own homes they couldn’t get out of – or they were buried under the rubble if the roof couldn’t withstand the snow’s pressure. Rescuers removed the frozen corpses in places.
Transport communications were disrupted due to icing and broken wires, leaving residents without electricity. Hundreds of thousands of head animals and many plants in greenhouses died, resulting in significant losses for agriculture. Due to difficulties in food supply, people ate their pets in places. An additional problem was the lack of access to doctors – this resulted in an increase in death rates. Additionally, snowfalls have repeatedly threatened coastal flooding as melting snow causes sea levels to rise.
Makarova emphasized that even if it does not snow again in Moscow in the near future, other dangers await residents.
“Now there will be a period of cold for a few days followed by a warming accompanied by increased winds. Rain, sleet forecast. This will lead to ice and black ice, the coefficient of adhesion to the surface will decrease, and it will be very difficult to walk. This period is likely to be short, but it will greatly complicate the movement. Pedestrians and drivers need to be careful at such moments.