When the world seems to be recovering from the decline of the covid-19 epidemic, unexpected start war in ukraine In February 2022, there was a heavy blow to the international board. with serious consequences for each of the inhabitants of the planet: energy crisis, inflation, food insecurityunbundling of security systems and international governance… This is the latest example of how the “complexity of the international order” and the emerging “multiple crises” affect citizens in the first person perspective. Y 2023 will be a decisive year for this ‘permanent crisis’ – The chosen word of the year and implies “a prolonged period of instability and insecurity, particularly as a result of a series of catastrophic events” – and its implications for the new year, Esade Geo Global Economy and Geopolitics, according to the international rating of the Barcelona Center for International Affairs (CIDOB) It was prepared in collaboration with the Center.
“Complexity is not negative and should be in the response to these crises” because “there is no easy way outCIDOB Director Pol Morillas drew attention during the presentation of the memo this Tuesday, in which ‘Think Tank’ addresses 10 issues that will mark the international agenda in the new year.
In the specific case of the war in Ukraine, CIDOB uses the analogy of an American pool table, in which Russia’s invasion of the Slavic country is “pool ball”. It has affected the transformations and crises experienced and accelerated some processes. central investigator and coordinator of the report, Carme Colomina. a peaceful scenario is unlikelyNot even peace negotiations that could lead to easing of crises. According to the experts of this ‘think tank’, neither side is currently in the stage of considering an agreement to be more beneficial than continuing the conflict.
Among the effects of war to be considered for 2023, CIDOB highlights: impact it will continue to have on access to basic necessities (food, energy), weak economic growth and ghost recessionbarriers to the implementation of the green and digital transition due to the escalation of unrest and protests around the world, and the energy crisis. “After a winter of discontent with strikes and protests around the world, we’ll have to see what effect they will have. We live in a world where there are more and more protests, but where they are less and less effective,” Colomina said. .
Others”
In their report, experts summarize the possible geostrategic consequences of the ‘permanent crisis’, as well as the role ‘others’ will play, by referring to the middle powers that have regional power and desire to have global influence. This is the situation of Turkey, Brazil, India or Saudi Arabia, which can tip the balance in favor of one of the three world powers, the USA, Russia and China. cooperation channels open with everyone.
CIDOB, in the section on democracies and dictatorships, covers how authoritarianism is gaining ground on the planet (70% of the world’s population lives under the yoke of a dictatorship), but how autocratic regimes are equally under pressure. As an example of the latter, he gives: protests Iranian According to Middle East and North Africa expert Moussa Bourekba, it was triggered by Mahsa Amini’s death while in detention for wearing the wrong veil, betting on the regime’s “war of attrition”; the The reaction to the ‘zero policy’ in China covid‘ that it eventually triggered its cancellation, but without brutal restrictions plunged the country into an uncertain state before the first coronavirus outbreak; or the “high degree of internal pressure” that Russian President Vladimir Putin has been subjected to because of the war.
Regarding China, it will be important to pay attention. evolution of conflict with taiwan Inés Arco, a researcher specializing in East Asian and Chinese politics, pointed out whether this is a “new scenario of global tensions.” “Conflict cannot be ignored and there will be disastrous economic consequences due to the blockade, as 30% of world maritime trade passes through the Taiwan Strait,” Arco said. in 2023
In the case of The friction between the US and the US European Union Morillas thought it would be necessary to see how far Twenty-Seven was willing to go to “oppose” these policies, given the law passed by the White House to combat inflation, which Brussels described as protectionist. In any case, he added, “the strongest alliance in the world and now stronger than before the war.”
Returning to the pool table analogy, CIDOB finally points to the difficulties that the “black ball” can cause, namely, “anything that can blow up forecasts, timing, and international political strategies.” nuclear attack or accident.