There’s a whirlwind in his eye, and no doubt that this Christmas will take place in an almost perfectly normal context. At the door of decisive days, food industry He believes he will recover pre-pandemic sales volumes; the associations representing trade and supermarkets, most customers will spend the same or more than last year; and consumer organizations OCU, same. This is despite the latest data, National Institute of Statistics (INE), reveals that food prices continued to rise in November, or that consumer confidence was about 30 points below its January level. “We have one Economic crisis, energetic, military, politicsfrom distribution… rarely so many risk factors come together,” he says. OBS Business School and author of ‘Christmas yesterday, today and tomorrow’, Eduardo Irastorzadespite everything, she is dedicated to a healing Christmas.
“We are about to emerge from an epidemic in which we are very constrained and support many relational aspects,” this teacher thinks. In this sense, according to him, several conditions come together to explain why optimism wins: First, emotional factormaking this Christmas look like an opportunity to meet again, after two years of half-gas parties due to covid; then the possibility of things getting much worse next year. In other words, for many this may be the last chance. spend carefree.
Culture also influences (“we Latinos, we like to be outside; the crisis is palpable in Germany”, Irastorza exemplifies this) and that economic disaster has been declared since the summer, but has not yet erupted. This professor claims, “If you anticipate a problem long before it’s noticed and you can make it work, you’ll get people to accept it much better.”
This explains why valuation remains upbeat now, a week before the holidays kick off, although a few weeks ago a Black Friday campaign was projected as a possible part of Christmas shopping as the only risk. In the final analysis business association AECOC It reflects that 70% of consumers intend to continue or increase their spending this year. And for the same tradeThe Catalan Retail Family Business Association, an industry that expects to sell 11% more this December than last year, with 77% of businesspeople being optimistic.
“The data for the last few months is pretty optimistic,” he analyzes President of Comercia, david sanchezThis is good news given the context, which acknowledges that the registered invoice increases are likely due to the more expensive product, but argues that fewer units were sold than last year. “If you look at the work that Comertia has been doing, we’ve been getting positive results for months: It’s a certain way. consumption is very responsible And that the exaggerated growth we had years ago is no longer happening, we have stability, and that’s a good thing,” he adds.
Equal or more expense
Also a report Nielsen reveals that almost 60% of Spaniards plan to spend the same this Christmas holidays as last year (17% say they will increase their budget) and Deloitte It puts the average spending of each household in Spain (634 euros) three euros above what was estimated last year. entertainment and restoration It takes the lead by far in the categories where consumption will increase the most. beside you, adevintaThe group, which owns portals such as Milanuncios or Motos.net, predicts a population that will substantially keep (57%) or increase (33%) spending this year.
“Most of them run a similar budget to other years,” he admitted. Organization of consumers and users (OCU) in the spending forecast survey. “However, while the economic outlook may not be very gratifying because it’s Christmas, or just because we’re aware that everything is much more expensive this year, 15 percent of respondents say they will spend more than 100 percent in 2021,” the agency pointed out in a statement. .
In any case, its presence also serves as an incentive. food cheaper now than a year ago or two weeks ago. This Mercabarna Wholesale Companies Association (colleague) assured last week that it expects a level of sales at least equal to pre-covid. largely because products like squid, gold, salmon, Lobster, prawnfruits like mandarin, Orange waves strawberries, Y vegetables aspect celery, Chicory wave artichoke Now they are cheaper than a year ago.