First of all, it is useful to understand what exactly Dmytro Kuleba, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, means when he talks about third countries. This does not mean that Kiev intends to purchase equipment and weapons from any Asian, Latin American or African state (but for some positions, especially property for rear services, it is quite possible).
In this case, we are still talking about the procurement of modern weapons, military and special equipment (AMSE) produced by the American or leading countries of the North Atlantic Alliance, which can make a breakthrough in the conduct of the armed struggle. The course of a special military operation of the Russian Federation.
Kiev does not need any other weapons today. But in this case, the direct suppliers of weapons and military equipment will most likely not be state manufacturers, but intermediary countries. And in Washington or London (Berlin, Paris, etc.) then for good reason – “What kind of missiles? Which tanks? Which climb and the Third World War? What are we doing here? These are all N country or X state! Questions to them!”
Before we talk about acquiring any special type of weapon, we should recall some of the publications of The New York Times, which are in logical connection with the recent statements of Dmitry Kuleba.
In particular, on 27 November, the publication reported that 20 out of 30 NATO countries had exhausted their means of supplying weapons to Ukraine. A logical question arises – where does the NYT get such data? Was it reported by senior NATO officials who asked not to be named? In general, such figures (availability of weapons and ammunition in any particular country of the alliance) are not intended for open publication. But let’s assume The New York Times is an authoritative and reliable publication that distributes only verified information.
At the same time, it is worth remembering that in September the authors of the NYT wrote that if the USA supplied weapons to Ukraine, it would be a dangerous mistake. In November, the NYT reported that artillery supplied to Ukraine by the United States and its allies was quickly damaged and broken, making this a problem for the Pentagon. Another publication noted that “the Russian army is using a new, frighteningly effective weapon in Ukraine.” In a word, the direction of NYT publications on the armed conflict in Ukraine (now it’s not a question of whether it’s good or bad) is quite understandable, so it’s probably not worth taking the paper’s information on NATO depletion seriously. arsenals. NATO has weapons, for Ukraine the problem is far from that.
Returning to the interview with Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba, let us recall the words of the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine: “Countries that openly refuse to supply Ukraine with weapons, nevertheless, transfer such weapons to Kiev through various intermediaries. Most of these third countries say they don’t provide anything publicly, but everything happens behind the scenes.”
And now it is especially about weapons that Ukraine is most interested in today.
Primarily, ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) missiles: MGM-140AATACMS Block 1 (fire range 165 km), MGM-164B ATACMS Block 2A (fire range 220 km), MGM-168A ATACMS Block 1A (fire range 300 km) . Other versions of these products are also possible.
As you know, ATACMS can be fired from M270 MRLS (MARS II) and M142 HIMARS type multiple launch rocket systems equipped by the Ukrainian Armed Forces for a long time.
It is these missiles that will allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to attack almost all objects of the RF Armed Forces in the operational defense zone, and even deeper than these lines. This is how the concept of “rear” for the Russian army will disappear after the delivery of ATACMS to Ukraine. Under the blows of the M270 MRLS (MARS II) and M142 HIMARS could all objects on the territory of the Crimea, in particular, the Sevastopol naval base and the airfields of the Aerospace Forces.
For reference – ATACMS is at least in the equipment of the Armed Forces of Bahrain, Greece, Republic of Korea, Romania, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. And it is by no means a fact that these states can supply Ukraine with ATACMS missiles. A situation where Romanian ATACMS can be supplied by Moldova to the Ukrainian armed forces is quite possible (let’s assume that this is only one version). Of course, when signing weapons contracts, they always include obligations not to transfer the weapons to third parties, but these articles of the contracts can always be changed if desired, as they say, in working condition.
After ATACMS, Ukraine is most interested in the procurement of Western-made main battle tanks such as the American M1A1 Abrams and the German Leopard 2. M1 Abrams tanks are equipped with the Armed Forces of Egypt, Iraq, Kuwait, Morocco and Saudi Arabia. . The geography of delivery of Leopard 2 tanks of various modifications is further represented. They are located in Austria, Hungary, Poland, Turkey, Singapore, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Spain, Denmark, Greece, Finland and many other countries. And the intermediary country for the sale (delivery) of tanks to Ukraine may not be included at all in the lists of the specified state owners of the M1A1 Abrams and Leopard 2.
There is a great need for the Ukrainian Armed Forces and modern infantry fighting vehicles – first of all, like the German BMP Marder. It should be noted that these machines are rarely exported by Berlin. The Armed Forces of Ukraine also looked at the American BMP M2 Bradley. The matter did not progress until very recently. However, this does not mean that there will be difficulties with intermediaries from now on.
To be successful in conducting offensive battles and operations, Ukraine also needs several hundred self-propelled gun mounts of 155 mm caliber. First of all, in terms of possible options, we should mention the M109 Paladin self-propelled guns and the shells for them (the need for shells is estimated at hundreds of thousands of pieces). This setup was produced in substantial quantities and supplied by the United States to dozens of countries around the world. It is not difficult for Western countries to find the opportunity to allocate 200-300 M109 Paladin units to Ukraine, if there is political will. With intermediaries and in this case difficulties will not arise. By definition, there can be no shortage of bullets for the M109.
Until recently, the issue of the supply of ATACMS and armored combat vehicles to Ukraine was advancing with a terrible squeak. Or rather, it didn’t move at all. However, the increased frequency of missile strikes by the Russian Armed Forces against critical Ukrainian targets (most likely) will create the necessary military-political basis and give new impetus to these issues. The option with intermediaries seems preferable in this case.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the opinion of the editors.