The National Institute of Statistics (INE) is already a year late in initiating a total change in the way it measures the evolution of electricity prices to calculate inflation, in order to better fit the data to the actual consumption of Spanish households. The change in the way of calibrating the electricity price, which is planned for January 2022, does not have a date yet to come into effect and will not come alone: İNE will change at the same time how to calculate gas prices It is paid by Spanish consumers.
The agency will implement a change in the calculation base of the consumer price index (CPI) solely to measure the evolution of regulated electricity and gas rates, and will also include free market rates that have concentrated most of both energy markets over the years. So far, inflation has not been taken into account when calculating it. According to official sources from the INE, the inclusion of all types of tariffs on both electricity and gas will be implemented simultaneously to calculate inflation.
The agency’s original intention was to have the reform of electricity price measurement ready last January, but the plan was delayed because electricity companies did not send it the price data they needed to calculate the CPI. Since last April, Endesa, Iberdrola and Naturgy have been sending monthly data on both the regulated electricity tariff and the prices paid by their customers in the free market. As confirmed by various sources in the energy sectorthey have also been sending data to the INE for three months on any tariffs for the natural gas business.
Changes in CPI calculation data may affect inflation upwards in the short term. Government manages to control inflation In fact, it is positioned as the country with the least increase in prices in the entire euro area, thanks to the measures aimed at controlling the increases in electricity, gas and fuel prices.
upside effect
In the case of gas, regulated tariffs, called last resort tariffs (TUR), They benefit from government-enabled multimillion-dollar assistance and will be at prices much lower than free gas market rates, at least for the entirety of 2023. Changing the measurement of gas price, now including more expensive free tariffs, will predictably mean an increase in inflation relative to current levels.
The government has implemented a million-dollar package of measures to lower the gas bills of more than three million homes, triggering a massive customer transfer and a commercial upswing in the industry. A shield against the crisis of 3,000 million euros, which envisages continuing to limit by law the increases applicable to 1.5 million customers of the regulated gas tariff throughout 2023. a new type of fee It will halve the bills of 1.7 million homes with central heating in neighboring communities. Some measures added to Gas VAT have been reduced from 21% to 5% for all rate types.
In any case, the INE points out that the weight of gas is very low in the CPI, but that of electricity is not. For most of the energy crisis, the regulated electricity tariff recorded record prices and was well above free market tariffs, so The weight of electricity in inflation is exaggeratedgiven that only 40% of all customers continue to contract at the regulated rate (called PVPC).
After the implementation of the Iberian exemption, when the time came for the annual review of contracts, the regulated electricity tariff became cheaper while free market tariffs rose. As might be expected, the change in the CPI calculation electricity prices Therefore, it will have the effect of increasing inflation relative to current levels.
IThe National Institute of Statistics still has not confirmed when it will implement the changes. In calculating the CPI energy prices planned for the beginning of 2022, the best scenario in principle is to start with a new formula as of January and start the calculations from the beginning of a full year, despite the official sources of the organization. If it is necessary to ensure that the accuracy of data and new coverage information from energy companies needs to be guaranteed, they do not neglect to do this with the already developed exercise.